June 23 Market Analysis

On June 23, the cryptocurrency market continued its downward trend, with Bitcoin (BTC) briefly dropping below the psychological threshold of 100,000 USD before quickly rebounding. Although this price level does not have absolute support, breaking it poses resistance to future upward movement. The main reason for this fluctuation is Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, as a blockade of this oil route would impact global oil prices and inflation, exacerbating uncertainty in the world order. However, this move is more likely to serve as a bargaining chip, and the actual probability of Iran closing the route is relatively low.

Due to the weekend closure of the U.S. stock market, Bitcoin has become an outlet for market sentiment, preemptively reflecting the potential decline trend of the U.S. stock market tonight. If the U.S. stock market stabilizes tonight, the downward trend in the crypto market may come to a halt for a while. In the short term, the market is disturbed by the situation in the Middle East; although there are concerns about risk transmission to the U.S. stock market, given that the risks have been made public, the U.S. stock market may have already digested some of the pressure in advance.

In terms of market outlook, there are still doubts in the short term. The decision to fully allocate positions in Ethereum is not based on certainty that its price has bottomed out, but rather on confidence in the market for the second half of the year. Recently, Ethereum has shown strong performance, and its ecological development potential is promising. Additionally, there is a price difference of more than ten points due to reduced holdings, providing room for swing trading from a medium to long-term perspective. The market may await a dual favorable drive from the easing of the Middle East situation and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, leading to an upward trend.