XRP ETF Decision Looms on June 17

A crucial decision regarding the XRP ETF is set to be announced on June 17. Ripple continues to push for a legal settlement, while the SEC prepares to rule on Franklin Templeton’s ETF application. Should the outcome favor XRP, the cryptocurrency could experience a sharp and parabolic price rally.

High Expectations for XRP ETF Approval

Market confidence in the approval of a spot XRP ETF remains strong. Earlier this month, Polymarket’s odds for approval surged to 98%, currently stabilizing around 88%. The SEC’s decision on Franklin Templeton’s spot XRP ETF could serve as a defining moment not just for XRP, but for the entire crypto market.

Possibility of Continued Delays

Despite optimistic projections, Bloomberg analysts estimate an 85% chance that an XRP ETF will be approved at some point this year. Leading firms such as Bitwise and Grayscale are also awaiting approval for their respective XRP ETF filings. Grayscale’s verdict is expected by October 18, while ProShares anticipates a final ruling by June 25. Approval of ProShares’ ETF would limit the SEC’s ability to delay beyond that date.

James Seyffart, a Bloomberg ETF analyst, describes the recent postponements as standard practice, noting the SEC often takes the full review period. Most final decisions are anticipated around October, and early approvals— even under a more crypto-friendly SEC—would be considered exceptions.

Legal Developments Could Influence the Outcome

Nate Geraci, President of Crypto ETF Store, emphasizes the rapid evolution of crypto ETFs, highlighting advances like staking and altcoin ETF launches. On June 12, Ripple and the SEC jointly filed a motion asking Judge Torres to lift the XRP sales ban for institutions and reduce the $125 million fine. This legal maneuver is being closely watched.

Some experts believe Judge Torres might approve the motion by June 19, but cautious voices remain. Pro-crypto lawyer John Deaton assigns a 70% chance of success to the motion, while Bill Morgan warns that the court could delay again.

Approval of this motion would remove a significant barrier for an XRP spot ETF, putting Franklin Templeton’s timeline in sharp focus. However, ongoing litigation may prompt further delays from the SEC.

XRP Price Positioned for Volatility

Currently trading at $2.23, up 3.2% in the last 24 hours, XRP finds itself at a critical juncture. The convergence of legal clarity and potential ETF approval could spark a notable breakout. Conversely, any setbacks or postponements may lead to short-term sell-offs, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to regulatory and judicial developments.