Peter Brandt warns that Bitcoin could correct by 75%, causing an uproar in the community.

Recently, a bold forecast from veteran trader Peter Brandt about the possibility of Bitcoin repeating a 75% correction pattern as seen in 2022 has sparked many lively debates in the crypto community. According to Brandt, if this scenario plays out again, the price of Bitcoin could fall sharply to 26,000 USD from the current level of 107,496 USD, marking a significant decline.

This information appeared after Brandt's recent post on platform X, where he questioned whether Bitcoin is preparing for a sharp fall like it did in 2022. In November 2021, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of 69,000 USD, but then fell sharply by about 76% in the following 12 months, down to around 16,195 USD in November 2022. In his post, Brandt wrote:

"Is Bitcoin following the script of 2022 and preparing for a 75% correction? Asking like this doesn't hurt, right?"

However, Brandt's prediction has received mixed reactions from analysts and industry experts.

Critical Opinions

One of the biggest critiques comes from Pav Hundal, the chief analyst at Swyftx. He argues that the current macro fundamentals have changed significantly compared to 2022. Hundal explains:

"The difference in macro fundamental factors between now and 2022 is very large. In 2022, we had an economic high from the COVID era of money printing and stimulus. Today's environment is completely different."

The reason he gave is that in 2022, many Americans used government stimulus money to invest in cryptocurrency, which contributed to the increase in the value of Bitcoin and other assets. However, in the current context, the economic situation and financial policies of countries have changed significantly, with the impacts of the tightening monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market following the collapse of FTX.

Andy Edstrom, author and Bitcoin analyst, also acknowledges that there may be a correction, but he disagrees that the decline will reach 75%. Edstrom commented:

"So far, that's true, but not at the level of 75% because the fall between the two peaks this year is not as serious as in 2021."

Edstrom also emphasized that the cycle of 2021 was cut short by unforeseen events, particularly the collapse of the FTX exchange. He believes that this was a key factor that strongly affected the decline in the value of Bitcoin in 2022.

Simon Amery, a senior research analyst at Collective Shift, also pointed out that while the Federal Reserve began to gradually taper quantitative easing in November 2021, the current monetary policy is moving in the opposite direction, with the Fed raising interest rates and planning further tightening. This creates a different economic context compared to 2022, when the cryptocurrency market was still supported by loose monetary policies.

User X Death Ca₿ to QE indicates that previous Bitcoin price cycles were primarily driven by retail investor sentiment. However, a significant difference in the current cycle is that retail investor sentiment no longer plays a major role. Instead, the price of Bitcoin today is mainly driven by institutional investors and large enterprises.

This creates an unpredictable situation, as the mindset of large organizations and businesses is not easily influenced by short-term factors like FOMO compared to retail investors. The involvement of institutions complicates the accurate prediction of when these institutions will pull back or how long this "FOMO" will last, as there is a lack of historical precedent for comparison. This situation makes the analysis and forecasting of Bitcoin prices more difficult than ever.

Meanwhile, cryptocurrency analyst Colin Talks Crypto believes that Peter Brandt's forecast lacks solid grounds. He points out that the current sentiment of investors does not show signs of a price peak.

"The current market sentiment is quite gloomy, and it is difficult to consider this as a peak. There are no signs of excitement appearing."

According to Colin, if the market truly enters a major correction, the price of Bitcoin must be accompanied by a significant change in investor sentiment, but currently, the excitement and confidence in Bitcoin remain relatively stable.

Finally, Michael Saylor, co-founder of Strategy and one of the biggest supporters of Bitcoin, has completely dismissed the possibility that Bitcoin will experience a sharp fall in the near future. He stated to Bloomberg:

"Winter will not come back. We have passed that stage; if Bitcoin does not go to 0, it will reach 1 million USD."

Saylor's perspective shows extreme optimism about the future of Bitcoin, asserting that despite short-term fluctuations, this cryptocurrency still has strong growth potential in the long term.

Annie