Bitwise Prediction: Bitcoin to Surge to $200,000 by Year-End, U.S. Debt Crisis is the Main Driver

Bitwise predicts that bitcoin will end the year at $200,000, pointing to the US debt crisis as the main driver, and institutional demand and technical signals reinforce this view. (Synopsis: Bitcoin relaxes OP_RETURN "angers old OG": BTC becomes a shitcoin, consider selling out of the industry) (Background supplement: The mysterious whale is 20 times long for Bitcoin 300 million US dollars, and James Wynn, who lost everything, returns anonymously?　A recent report by cryptocurrency investment firm Bitwise predicted that the price of bitcoin is expected to exceed $200,000 by the end of the year, and the fair value is more likely to reach $230,000. It is worth noting that the main rationale for this forecast is not traditional technical indicators, but the severe fiscal situation in the United States and the expanding federal debt. U.S. Debt Pressure: New Drivers of Bitcoin's Bull Market? Bitwise analysts André Dragosch and Ayush Tripathi analyzed in the latest weekly crypto market outlook report that the current fiscal policy in the United States is creating an extremely favorable macroeconomic environment for Bitcoin. The report mentioned that the US federal debt is soaring, mandatory spending has exceeded government revenue, and former President Trump's proposed "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" tax cut bill may make the fiscal situation worse. In fact, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), net interest payments in the United States are expected to triple to a staggering $3 trillion by 2030, raising concerns about a potential sovereign default. Bitwise analysts believe that in such a context of fiscal instability, Bitcoin's scarcity and resilience, coupled with its decentralized nature, make it a unique tool for hedging sovereign risk. What Analysts Say: Bitcoin Positioning in Fiscal Distress Dragosch and Tripathi emphasized in the report: "The deterioration of the US fiscal situation has led to an increase in demand for safe-haven assets. As a rare and resilient asset, Bitcoin's decentralized and censorship-resistant nature makes it an excellent hedge against sovereign default." Markets have recently shown sensitivity to such macro stressors. For example, whenever there is major news about key fiscal policy, it can trigger significant fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin. This phenomenon not only highlights that its hedging function has begun to attract the attention of some market participants, but also reflects the characteristics of the price being easily affected by the news surface. Multi-Bullish Signals: Institutional and Technical Indicators Supporting Bitwise's bullish view is not the only voice in the market. For example, technical analyst Stockmoney Lizards noted at the end of May that its Optimised Trend Tracker (OTT) indicator had triggered a bullish signal for the first time since mid-2024. The agency expects that this signal could push bitcoin to $200,000 in 2025, or even $250,000 upwards. In addition, Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise, also said last month that the surge in institutional demand is causing a crunch in the supply of bitcoin, and the price is expected to hit $200,000 by the end of 2025. At the same time, (power law model) analysis, a power-law model that has accurately predicted the highs and lows of the bitcoin cycle in the past, also points to the fact that the bitcoin price is expected to reach $200,000 by the end of this year. Institutional demand has indeed become one of the key factors driving the price of Bitcoin. Since the approval of the listing of bitcoin ETFs in the United States, institutional funds have continued to flow into the market, and their purchases have even exceeded the annual supply of bitcoin. This imbalance between supply and demand provides strong structural support for price increases. Related reports Arthur Hayes: Bank of Japan "needs conditions to raise interest rates" or restart QE: Bitcoin, risk assets will skyrocket Ukraine considers building a "Bitcoin war reserve" to work with Binance to push legislation Micro strategy chokes back on "bitcoin quantum attack", Michael Saylor: unfounded worry, if it comes true, Google and Microsoft will fall first [Bitwise predicts: bitcoin rushes $200,000 at the end of the year, and the US debt crisis is the main driver] This article was first published in BlockTempo's "Dynamic Trend - The Most Influential Blockchain News Media".