How Much of the Bitcoins Have Been Lost Forever in Total? The Latest Data Has Been Released, Here is the True Maximum BTC Supply!

Crypto analysis firm Cane Island's new research revealed a striking fact about Bitcoin's supply dynamics.

According to the company's report, by mid-2025, more than 6 million Bitcoins have been irreversibly lost. That number was just over 4 million in 2020. If the current trajectory continues, the amount of BTC lost is expected to exceed 7 million by September 2025, which means that more than a third of all Bitcoins mined so far have been permanently removed from circulation.

According to Cane Island, these losses are mostly due to the loss of private keys, the physical disappearance of hardware wallets, or users who pass away without leaving heirs. Additionally, BTC sent to unrecoverable addresses through "burning" transactions is also considered within this scope.

The research points out that the annual BTC loss rate has been declining in recent years. The annual loss rate, which was 4% in 2020, decreased to 3.3% by 2025. This decline; Multi-Sig(Multi-SIG) wallets are made possible thanks to enterprise custody solutions and increased user education. But the absolute number of casualties naturally continues to increase over time.

The Cane Island report also includes an important caveat: Bitcoin's reported market cap does not reflect reality. Because the entire supply is taken into account in the calculations; However, about one-third of this supply is now closed to economic circulation. The researchers suggest that the actual market value could be up to 50% lower than current calculations.

The founder of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, addressed this issue in 2010 on the Bitcointalk forum with the following words:

"Lost coins make everyone else's coins a little more valuable. You can think of this as a donation made to everyone."

This perspective reinforces the idea that the coins that are removed from circulation increase the scarcity value of the remaining BTC when combined with Bitcoin's decentralized structure and limited supply model.

*It is not investment advice.

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