The trade war reignites, Trump "opens fire on two fronts," with dark currents flowing in the crypto world.

The smoke of the trade war has risen again, as the United States unexpectedly swings the "tariff big stick" against both the European Union and its own tech giant Apple. On May 12, the release of the China-US "Joint Statement" had temporarily put the first phase of the trade war on hold. However, Trump couldn't wait and started the second phase of the tariff offensive just ten days later, directly targeting the European Union and Apple.
On May 23, Trump boldly suggested imposing a 50% tariff on EU goods, which will officially take effect from June 1, leaving only a one-week buffer period. It is important to note that in April, Trump had threatened a 50% tariff on Chinese goods, an action that was viewed by outsiders as "mad" and highly hostile. Now, he has surprisingly applied the same tactic to his ally, the EU, and even claims that he will impose it immediately after a week, fearing the EU might mistakenly think he is just bluffing. The tone is as if to say: "I’m not joking, next week you’ll really be paying a 50% tariff, EU, you better listen!" Previously, the US and the EU had indeed reached a 90-day extension agreement on tariffs, intending to negotiate slowly, but Trump has now lost his patience and turned against them.
Once these words were spoken, the financial market was instantly in turmoil. The futures of the three major U.S. stock indices plummeted sharply, each dropping more than 1%; the European Stoxx 600 index fell by 2%; and the German DAX index dropped a staggering 3%.
As early as April 2025, Trump publicly declared that "the establishment of the EU was to mess up American trade," and listed the "six major sins" of the EU, including trade barriers, value-added tax, corporate fines, and currency manipulation. He pointed out that the average tariff on American goods by the EU is 3.5%, higher than the 2.4% in the United States, especially with a "systemic" tariff discrimination in the agricultural sector. Based on this, Trump believes that the United States should impose tariffs of about 25% on the EU to offset the tariff gap between the two sides. The Trump team even defined the EU as an "economic enemy," with Vice President Pence calling the "EU a slave dependent on the U.S.," while trade negotiator Greer described the "EU as a parasite exploiting America."
During negotiations with the United States, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed a "zero tariff mutual exemption" plan for industrial products on April 7, covering 87% of product categories including automobiles and machinery. However, Trump immediately rejected it, stating it was "completely insufficient," and提出了一系列附加条件. He demanded that the EU immediately fully open its market to American agricultural products, permanently exempt American companies from digital taxes, grant American companies equal bidding rights as European companies in government procurement, relax food safety standards to be equivalent to those in the United States for American food exports, and that the EU must commit to purchasing $350 billion of American liquefied natural gas to offset the trade deficit, while also expanding military purchases from the U.S.
If the EU does not agree, the United States has imposed a 10% baseline tariff on EU goods since April. On this basis, starting from April 15, the United States has added an additional 25% tariff on EU steel and aluminum products (including automobiles), and on May 15, it expanded the scope to include agricultural products such as soybeans and nuts. The EU did not back down either, announcing on April 15 an additional 25% tariff on U.S. steel, aluminum, diamonds, dental floss, etc., and on May 15 announced restrictions on U.S. companies participating in European 5G construction and government procurement. On April 17, the EU announced 1.6 billion euros in aid to Palestine, which was interpreted by outsiders as "countering the U.S. through Middle Eastern issues." At the same time, the EU also announced a 116 billion euro retaliation list, which includes U.S. automobiles and airplanes, and threatened to impose tariffs on U.S. digital services.
From the perspective of physical goods trade, the United States indeed has a trade deficit of more than 100 billion dollars with the European Union. However, in the field of service trade, the United States has a surplus of more than 100 billion dollars with the European Union, putting both sides in a generally balanced state. Therefore, the European Union feels that it is not afraid of the United States, and both sides are relatively equal in the trade war.
On May 15, the United States once again pressured the European Union, trying to make the EU comply at the negotiating table, but the EU revealed its negotiating trump card. EU officials claimed that the conditions the US offered to the UK and China were not satisfactory for Europe; in other words, the conditions the US offers to the EU must be better than those given to the UK and China, and the conditions proposed by Trump are simply off the table. Multiple EU countries have clearly refused to accept a 10% baseline tariff clause similar to the US-UK agreement, and Swedish Trade Minister Benjamin Dusa even stated firmly that if the EU can only obtain conditions equivalent to those of the US-UK agreement, the US should prepare for retaliation from the EU.
In other words, the EU does not accept even a 10% baseline tariff, and its negotiating demand is for zero tariffs; otherwise, it will retaliate against the United States. On May 23, Trump reiterated his tough stance, stating that he would impose a 50% tariff on the EU. As for whether this would be added on top of the previous 10% baseline tariff and the additional 25% tariff, it is currently unclear, but the minimum would still be a 50% tariff. If the United States truly imposes a 50% tariff on the EU, it will no longer be a trade barrier, but rather a trade 'Berlin Wall', effectively severing trade between the US and Europe, and the global trade system will once again be on the brink of collapse.
However, Trump seems to feel no pressure in launching a tariff war, nor is he worried about any consequences or risks. Because on the same day, he also casually initiated another tariff war, announcing a 25% tariff on the American company Apple Inc. As an American enterprise, Apple is subjected to Trump’s "special treatment" and must pay tariffs according to national standards. Theoretically, Apple's products should belong to the country of production, either the United States, China, or India; Apple itself does not possess national attributes. However, Trump insists that Apple’s products must be manufactured and produced in the United States, or else they must pay at least 25% in tariffs to the U.S.
Obviously, the 25% tariff is imposed on Apple separately and does not exempt Apple from its status as a "product of a certain country", which means that Apple's products may be subject to double tariffs. Trump is not targeting China, but India. Since the U.S.-China trade war, Apple has been moving production capacity from China to India. At its peak, 90 percent of Apple's global production was made in China, and today 15 percent of its production capacity has been moved to India. But this is not what Trump wants, and he has brought the United States to a trade war with China at a huge cost, in order to make the United States great again, not simply to weaken China. But after a few years, the production capacity has not returned to the United States, and the United States has not only not regained its greatness, but has fallen into a financial crisis, and Trump naturally has to change his strategy.
Apple is not unaware of Trump's demands and his obsession with "Made in America", and Trump has indeed repeatedly mentioned this a long time ago, but Apple simply can't do it. In December 2017, Apple CEO Tim Cook said in an interview with Fortune magazine: "China attaches great importance to manufacturing, which is what we call vocational and technical education. They see mold making as an art rather than a low-end trade. And in the United States, it's not that everyone doesn't want to do it, it's that no one can do it at all. "Taking the iPhone case mold as an example, its accuracy is required to reach the micron level (0.01 mm), which requires skilled technicians with decades of experience, and the American vocational education system can no longer provide enough mid-level technical personnel.
In 2019, speaking at a White House roundtable, Cook explained to Trump why Apple couldn't fully move production back to the United States: "The supply chain and worker skills in the United States are not meeting our needs. In Shenzhen, all the suppliers we need are within a 30-minute drive; And in the U.S., you may not even be able to find the right screws. In 2019, Apple tried to produce a high-end Mac Pro in Austin, Texas, but the final result showed that the Texas factory capacity was only 1/20 of that of the Chinese factory, and the unit cost was 30% higher. By 2025, the Mac Pro assembly line in Texas will only symbolically retain about 500 jobs, with an annual production of less than 100,000 units, which is insignificant compared to Apple's annual global sales of 200 million, and has only political symbolism.
In 2025, Cook has repeatedly stated publicly that the size of a mold engineer in the United States can only "fill a conference room," while the same province in China can summon similar skilled workers to "fill a few football fields." This gap stems from China's systematically cultivated "deep skills" industrial clusters. There are so many mold engineers in China because of the long-term implementation of the "Great Country Craftsman" program, which has trained a total of 17 million senior technicians, of which 35% are in the mold field. Without these mold engineers, you would have to ask others to make a product and even open the mold. At the 2025 shareholder meeting, Cook emphasized: "Manufacturing competitiveness is not based on slogans, but on the density of engineers per square kilometer." It can be said that Cook has repeatedly publicly reasoned with the facts, proving that Apple's failure to move production back to the United States is not Apple's problem, but the United States' own problem.
As for the reasonableness of these explanations, Trump actually acknowledges it, so for the past seven or eight years, he has tacitly accepted the status quo. But now the United States really can't hold on any longer, and Trump can't care so much anymore. Regardless of how reasonable Apple's reasons are, and regardless of whether this issue is actually America's problem, he just demands that Apple move its factories back to the United States, and as for how to do it, let Apple figure it out. If they don't come back, he will impose huge tariffs.
But in reality, this simply does not work. Because the United States does not lack factories, but lacks workers. The real United States is a country that is seriously lacking in workers, and it is difficult to find people everywhere. So many factories have left the United States not by choice; who wouldn't want to build factories right at their doorstep? But if they can't even find workers, how can they build factories? According to the United States' own publicly available data, the vacancy rate for mechanical tool technology positions reaches 37%, far exceeding the industry average of 6.7%, which is sufficient to prove that these positions are in urgent need of personnel.
Why is there an urgent need for manpower? Because the wages are low, and no one is willing to work, it's that simple. With a vacancy rate as high as 37%, the average annual salary for this position is only $42,000, which translates to a monthly salary of $3,500. In the United States, almost anything is better than working in a factory; working in a factory is only slightly better than washing dishes, and it is completely disproportionate to the skill requirements and work intensity. This is similar to China, where a factory recruits workers with an average salary of 3,500 RMB, and having a high vacancy rate is completely normal; it would be strange if they could fill all the positions.
Why do U.S. factories pay workers so low? In fact, it is not low, $3,500 a month, which is higher than most countries and regions in the world, and it is ridiculously high. It is only because the United States makes too much money from overseas that the overall income of the national jobs has become too high, that it seems that the wages offered by the factories to the workers are low. Therefore, the wages paid to workers in American factories are already high to the limit, and there is no way to increase them. If you have to increase production capacity, you need more workers, and you have to pay them higher. If the price of the products produced can also skyrocket, then no problem. But if the price of the product cannot be increased, then the factory might as well close down.
But Trump's demand now is not only to move production capacity back to the United States, but also to demand that prices not be raised. The demand to move production capacity back to the United States is for the good of the United States and can enhance the combat readiness of the United States; It is also for the good of the American people, which can raise the wages of American workers. At the same time, it is required that the price of the products produced by the factory cannot rise, which is also for the sake of the American people, because the price of materials cannot rise, otherwise it will lead to a decline in the living standards of the people. Moving the factory back to the United States is a national policy, benefiting the country and the people, Trump doesn't understand, why is the company reluctant to open a factory in the United States for such a good thing?
But business owners also have something to say. Since the benefits go to the country and the people, why doesn't Trump open a factory in the United States himself? Has he ever opened even one factory in the United States? Has his entire family opened even one factory in the United States? Why doesn't he go do such a good thing himself? Apple has as many as 90,000 direct employees in the United States, almost all of whom are white-collar positions, with very few in manufacturing. But those are 90,000 high-paying office jobs. If Trump collapses Apple, who will be responsible for the employment of these 90,000 high-paying office jobs?
Apple's CEO Tim Cook has clearly stated that if the iPhone must be manufactured in the United States, its price will soar by 43%, and this is based on the assumption that the U.S. can provide enough workers without increasing wages. However, Americans are simply unwilling to work in factories; they do want America to be great, but they prefer that others work in the factories, not themselves, unless workers' wages are significantly increased.
But in reality, American factories can't even afford the current wages of American workers. If you want to raise workers' wages significantly, you have to raise the price of your products and sell them to workers at a high price. Then that's stagflation, terrible stagflation. It seems that the wage slip has risen, but the actual quality of life has fallen year after year, and at the same time, the entire economy is in disorder, and it is still impossible to recruit workers, because other white-collar jobs have risen more sharply.
What Americans want from 'Made in America' is for others to work in factories for low wages, or for themselves to work in factories for high wages, with absolutely no possibility of them working in factories for low wages. Moreover, the products they buy are not allowed to increase in price. This idea of wanting it both ways sounds incredibly beautiful, but it is nothing more than wishful thinking in governance, and in reality, it is simply unattainable; everyone is just waiting to reap the benefits without labor and enjoy the fruits of others' work.
If they are willing to cut off world trade, then they can indeed bring jobs back to the United States, but the resulting skyrocketing prices and plummeting quality of life are something that the rednecks in America are unwilling to accept. Therefore, this is fundamentally impossible. However, the rednecks in America do not believe it is impossible, and Trump does not believe it is impossible either, so they want to give it a try. They firmly believe that they can bring factories back to America and also raise the living standards of American rednecks higher than they are now.
The depth of this obsession with fantasy has led Trump to exhaust all possibilities to explore the feasibility of its realization. After realizing that he could not satisfy his wishes by confronting China head-on, he began to meddle with the EU and Apple, showing no mercy even though one is his ally and the other is a domestic company.
As long as the rednecks in America and Trump continue to hold such unrealistic fantasies, wishing every day without ceasing, Trump can only keep trying. We might as well wait and see, until they hit their heads and bleed, and finally recognize reality before speaking normally again. Moreover, this round of Trump's antics concerns the EU and Apple, which has limited impact on us. Once Trump finishes his antics and still fails, his domestic public support will surely suffer greatly, which will give China even more leverage in negotiations.
Behind this tariff war, the crypto world is also experiencing undercurrents. The instability of trade situations often leads to a chain reaction in the global economy, subsequently affecting the trends in the crypto world. Investors are closely monitoring the developments of this tariff war, trying to find investment opportunities and avoid potential risks. After all, in today's era of global economic integration, any policy change in a country can trigger waves in the crypto world like a butterfly effect.