Wall Street 30-Year Strategy Analyst: The Hedging Logic of Debt, Currency, and Bitcoin

Strategic investment experts with 30 years of experience on Wall Street, with a unique perspective on the current economic situation. This article is based on an interview with Anthony Pompliano and was compiled, compiled, and written by ChianCater. (Synopsis: Bitcoin breaks a new high of $110,000!) Trump's tax reform detonated the 20-year U.S. bond yield soared above 5%, and the U.S. stock market was wiped out) (Background supplement: Deribit option bet on bitcoin rushed to $300,000 at the end of June, what clues are revealed? This article is compiled from a video interview with Anthony Pompliano with Jordi Visser, a holistic strategy investment expert with 30 years of Wall Street experience. Jordi offers a unique perspective on the current economic situation. In the interview, Jordi also delves into hot topics such as inflation, stocks, Bitcoin, AI, and explains why the market moves against mainstream expectations. TL&DR The definition of "recession" in traditional economics textbooks has lost its explanatory power under the contemporary economic structure The market is beginning to see Bitcoin as an indispensable part of asset allocation Continuous currency depreciation is an inevitable trend Self-directed investors, independent investors, and retail investors are the real dominant forces in the market The essence of the "US Federal Reserve Put Option" is a perpetual currency devaluation The core driver of Bitcoin's price action is the change in the correlation between the dollar index and US Treasury yields Structural changes in capital flows are far more noteworthy than short-term economic fluctuations Currency repatriation caused by tariff policy will continue to put pressure on the US dollar, which in turn will affect the yield curve The strong performance of the AI industry in Q1 strongly supports the overall economic indicators At a time when AI is developing exponentially, the importance of historical experience is diminishing (I) Inflation controversy and data trust crisis Anthony Pompliano: The market was worried about tariffs, recessions and even the Great Depression, but the April data showed that consumption is still strong, Some commodities fell in price, and inflation fell. The stock market rebounded quickly, does that mean the alarm is lifted? What do you think of these economic signals? Jordi Visser: As tariffs eased, the policy path of the past five weeks became clear: from a 90-day reprieve on tariffs on Chinese products to a phased increase in rates, the overall trend is now reasonable, mostly at 10%, close to the level approved by Druckenmiller. This makes the divergence in economic data even more pronounced: business sentiment (soft data) remains subdued, but "hard data" driven by consumption and AI investment is solid. Although consumption is affected by market volatility in the short term, the AI industry has strongly supported the economy. Therefore, the S&P 500 rally makes sense. Despite many pessimistic expectations, the stock market rose during the year and recession predictions did not come true. Indeed, the traditional definition of recession is no longer applicable to the current complex and resilient economic structure. Anthony Pompliano: At a time when economic data is clearly politicized, how do we look for credible indicators? In economic analysis, should we reassess the reference value of such politicized data? Jordi Visser: In the current environment, the Bitcoin community has a unique advantage. In the age of social media, people have easier access to information that caters to their own views, and many macro analysts attract attention by singing about the market. Bitcoin holders, because they have not been accepted by the mainstream for a long time, have developed the ability to question authority and think independently. In the context of the accelerated development of AI, the importance of historical experience is diminishing. For example, it is no longer appropriate to draw an analogy of tariff policy in the 19th century; Modern information travels so fast that rumors like empty ports can quickly amplify fears of inflation and make rational judgment more difficult. The core advantage of Bitcoin holders is "cognitive humility". The essence of the current macro view is that there is too much debt for the government to cope with by raising taxes or cutting spending, and ultimately it can only be resolved by currency depreciation, which will weaken the value of bonds but benefit Bitcoin. The key is to discern the signals that really matter amid the noise of social media. (2) Bitcoin's counterattack: from edge asset to market leader Anthony Pompliano: The advantage of Bitcoin holders is that they have a "cognitive gap", admitting that they do not understand traditional finance, and are therefore more receptive to new formalization. Bitcoin is not an IQ test, but a test of cognitive flexibility: the ability to think outside the box and realize that we are in a new economic formalization. Nowadays, the transfer of capital to independent investors is accelerating, and independent investors, independent investors, and retail investors are the real leading forces in the market. Although institutions have funds, they are often trapped in complex strategies, such as hedging operations that are essentially just arbitrage; The "buy and hold" strategy of retail investors is simpler and more effective, and has been proven many times in cases such as Tesla, Palantir, and Game Station. In the context of currency depreciation, the simplest "buy and hold" strategy often trumps subtle financial engineering. Jordi Visser: Wall Street's long-held "Fed put" theory is undergoing a fundamental change. Traditional financial crises tend to form U-shaped bottoms (slow bottoming out), but now the market has shown an I-shaped straight rebound (recovery immediately after a plunge). There are two major reasons behind this: AI is reshaping the economic structure, the spread of flexible labor makes large-scale unemployment difficult to occur, and the traditional recession model fails; Recession has become a policy choice, the government uses inflation policies to hedge the deflationary pressure brought by technology, and the economy balances technological deflation and policy inflation. Bitcoin investors can recognize this trend because of two perceptions: understanding that the "US Federal Reserve put option" is essentially a constant currency devaluation; High-frequency trading trains the mindset to make calm decisions under pressure like a poker player. Anthony Pompliano: How do you identify valid economic signals when market consensus diverges from the real trend? When authoritative judgment continues to diverge from market reality, what is the real leading indicator? Jordi Visser: I think the stock market will still be volatile this year, but corporate earnings are growing and the fundamentals of the economy are stable. Paul Tudor Jones turned bearish before the easing of U.S.-China tariffs, and Steve Cohen also predicted a 45% recession probability and a market correction. But be wary: when high-profile investors sing short, they may be trying to guide market sentiment by missing a rally. I don't think the market will bottom out twice, because of the special financial model of the AI industry: although the technology giants plan to spend $300 billion in capital expenditure, they only need to amortize $30 billion this year, and this "revenue front-loading, cost-delayed" model provides profit margins for the S&P 500 in the short term. A similar situation occurred in the early days of cloud computing and the Internet, except that technology companies are now less indebted. In the long run (2-3 years from now), the challenge will only emerge when Mag7 companies need to deliver real returns. Sequoia pointed out that start-ups are gradually eroding the market share of the giants. The market is expected to come under pressure after hitting new highs, but it will not return to its lows in the short term. Anthony Pompliano: When AI startups dare to challenge industry giants, aren't these "opponents' choices" the most powerful value endorsements? Jordi Visser: Based on Stripe's latest disclosure, Cursor is the substitute...