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U.S. bonds have collapsed again.
Yesterday, US Treasury yields soared collectively, and you wouldn't believe that the 30-year Treasury yield is close to 5%, while the 10-year yield has already broken past 4.5%.
I searched for the ten-year government bond yields of major countries worldwide using deepseek, and got the results shown in the following chart.
The soaring U.S. Treasury yield indicates that the funds in the market do not recognize U.S. Treasuries; there are fewer buyers, and they can only attract investors with higher yields. Even so, there have been frequent reports this year of cooling interest in U.S. Treasury auctions. Some people like to hide behind the trade war, explaining that it’s because the U.S. is waging a trade war, which has led to a global loss of confidence in the dollar, causing a cooling of U.S. Treasuries. Haha, as if U.S. Treasuries were selling like hotcakes between April 2. Several U.S. Treasury auctions have failed to find enough buyers, and the Federal Reserve is quietly stepping in to absorb them. How is this not something the U.S. exposed itself? There are also those who say that the reason the Federal Reserve is reluctant to cut interest rates is that once rates are cut, the global market will start to sell off U.S. Treasuries, leading to their collapse.
So tell me, in 2024, the U.S. fiscal expenditure will be 67,500, the fiscal deficit will be 18,300, and interest expenditure will be 11,330. If interest rates are not lowered, U.S. finances will be dragged down by U.S. debt interest. Didn't Musk once say that the efficiency department of the government could reduce U.S. fiscal expenditure by 1 trillion a year? The words are still fresh in our ears, but Musk has long since taken his leave. Does he not want to use AI technology to help the U.S. reduce fiscal expenditure? That guy really can take decisive action; the International Development Agency cuts as it pleases, and every so often, it exposes some internal government corruption. But so what? Behind those very low-level corruptions stand deep-rooted, massive forces that cannot be eradicated.
The understanding king has no way to cut expenses; in order to solidify his rule, he still needs to spend money to buy off the strong military. Therefore, this debt hole in the United States will naturally continue to grow larger. In fact, the simplest way to cut spending is to lower interest rates and turn government bonds into negative interest rates, just like Japan and Europe did a few years ago. Wouldn't that save a trillion dollars a year? However, the largest creditor of US debt is the various domestic financial groups in the United States. Why would they lend you money for free and even pay you interest?
If you want to be beautiful, then you can go blindly under the covers. Understand that Wang and Fed Chairman Powell have publicly torn apart for the sake of interest rates. In fact, it's not that the Federal Reserve can't cut interest rates and release water, hasn't it also been QE two rounds before? But the problem is that before the robbery, you have to settle the hard stubble on the road, you just ask others if they are happy that the United States will restart the money printing machine regardless of it, once people join forces to boycott it, a large amount of printed money will flow back to the United States, and it will immediately cause extreme inflation, and the Fed's business will be completely ruined. So every time before the money printing machine starts, you have to poke a big hole, for example, in the 08 subprime mortgage crisis, you have to print money to save the market, otherwise the global economy will collapse, the global epidemic outbreak in 20 years, the world was forced to pause, and the money printing machine has to save your life. But now, on what basis do you say that the seal is printed? What's more, the king is still there to start a tariff war without knowing whether to live or die. There is a more important one, that is, how to distribute the printed money, whether the Fed is leading or understanding the king, and the Fed is of course unwilling to do it. As we all know, I am a black fan who understands the king, and the powder is deep and naturally black. He has been very fond of Finance Minister Bessant recently, and he has negotiated the Ukrainian mineral agreement, and he has led the Sino-US negotiations in Switzerland.
Of course, it is a habit to understand that Wang likes the new and hates the old, and it is a habit to cross the river and tear down the bridge. But Bessant naturally has his own merits, the buddy claims to be Soros's personal disciple, Soros is the biggest funder father of the Democratic Party, the number one thug of the Federal Reserve, and he is still a homosexual, no matter how he looks at it, he is an outlier in a cabinet that understands the king's right. He also understands Wang because people can directly communicate with the elders of the United States, and they have other means of collusion with the Federal Reserve, which is not enough for outsiders. If you want to be valued, you have to be seen as problem-solving. There was a "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" before, which mentioned a very ambitious plan, requiring countries to buy 100-year US bonds, not to sell, not to pay interest, and to pay management fees, the kind that can be exempted from tariffs if you buy it, otherwise, hum...... The idea is very good, and if it is really done, the Fed will no longer be able to use U.S. bonds to understand the king. It's a pity that even the Neon Nation, which is garrisoned, refuses to agree, let alone other countries. Wang can only go back and have a good relationship with the Federal Reserve. But MAGA's character has already been established, and it is not like Lao Deng who pretends to respect the Fed's freedom to print money. So at this time, we can only let Bescent come around. If the U.S. bonds are selling well now and there is a lot of money in the treasury, there is certainly no need to give the Fed any face. But if the U.S. debt collapses because of the Federal Reserve, and then affects the U.S. economy, the king will definitely stir up public opinion to force the Fed's palace, maybe take the technology upstarts to recreate a cyber Fed, and by the way, take the money of the Wang family that he controls to fly. So you see, the U.S. debt can only go wrong because it understands the king. We all know that a wave of US dollar assets fell sharply in April, and the hat was buckled to the tariff war, and I knew that Wang admitted it, and quickly picked up Bason and asked him to come forward to negotiate an agreement with Dongda on terms that were relatively beyond expectations, which made the US stock market rise again. But if it's all right, wouldn't that make the king of understanding the master? No one in the United States can compare to the king of understanding, and this wave of the Middle East can go around and make some KPIs. At this time, if the Fed does nothing, it is not worthy of mastering the money printing machine.
So, under the seemingly favorable external circumstances, the US debt collapsed.
The fundamental reason for the soaring yields is that no one buys, and few people buy. But everyone knows that the Fed is bound to cut interest rates, and it's just a matter of time. There is an expectation of interest rate cuts, and it stands to reason that U.S. bonds should rise, after all, it will be difficult for you to buy properties with such high yields in the future. What's more, U.S. bonds are now taking the domestic route, and domestic investors are the bulk of the purchases. But don't forget, when Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, the Federal Reserve made a tool that allowed institutions to use U.S. bonds as collateral to the Federal Reserve to get money. The so-called U.S. debt maturity crisis in June, in fact, the Federal Reserve has the same means to solve it, but why did they solve it so honestly? When the time comes, the king will still be able to take the work done by the Federal Reserve and put gold on his face. If I am the Federal Reserve, of course, I have to create the illusion that the US debt is about to run out, and I have to throw the pot on the king to start a trade war rashly and undermine globalization, so Bison can lead the tariff negotiations, which is a sign of weakness by the king, but this is of course not enough. So the U.S. debt is about to be convulsed, and the king wants to settle all this, very good, come on, find a place to talk about the conditions.
Of course, I believe that the reckless spending in the U.S. will eventually lead to an unmanageable debt crisis, but the real catastrophe will definitely not happen now; it won't be that quick. After all, the dollar's hegemony is still in place, and using a bit of the residual power of that hegemony to resolve the current debt dilemma is not a difficult task. It's just that this is a card in the hands of the Federal Reserve, and if they don't use it to exchange for something, how could it be possible?
There is no need to hype up the US debt crisis; the dollar's hegemony will be gradually eroded. Swallowing it whole will lead to a breakdown.