Tracking Bitcoin Price: Could Consolidation Ignite the Next Price Rise?

The price of Bitcoin stood at $103,641 to $104,091 in the past hour on May 16, 2025, with a market capitalization of $2.05 trillion. The total trading volume in the last 24 hours was $31.98 billion, and the price fluctuated within a daily range of $101,820 to $104,457 on Bitstamp. Bitcoin has been above the $100,000 range for a total of nine consecutive days. Technically, the daily chart of Bitcoin shows a clear upward trend marked by a strong increase from around $79,000 to the resistance zone of $105,000. This upward move is accompanied by decreasing volume, indicating hesitation among market participants at the current level. The tightly clustered candles near this resistance level indicate hesitation, forming a potential distribution zone. A breakthrough above the $105,000 level, especially if confirmed by increased volume, would signal a continuation of the uptrend. Conversely, a pullback below the $100,000 threshold may encourage profit-taking or initiate a correction phase.

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin appears to be locked in a range-bound structure with bearish overtones. The resistance level still exists around the $105,000 mark, while the support level is identified near $100,000. Notably, the selling volume surged as prices fell, indicating strong supply pressure during the decline. After multiple rejections at the resistance level and a series of lower highs and lows, the current price consolidation between $103,000 and $104,000 could break to the downside. A recovery above $105,000 with strong volume could reset bullish momentum, but a drop below $100,000 would reinforce bearish sentiment.

The hourly chart of Bitcoin shows weak consolidation behavior following an unsuccessful recovery attempt. After reaching a local high of $104,457, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain upward momentum, with its price confined within a narrow channel between $103,000 and $104,000. The decline in trading volume continues to hint at an impending volatility expansion. The dominance of sellers is apparent, especially after being rejected at $104,500. A strong move above that level with increased volume could indicate a potential breakout for the day, while failing to hold above $101,000 could trigger stop-loss orders.

The fluctuating data reflects that the market is at a crossroads. The relative strength index (RSI) at 70, the Stochastic at 84, the (CCI) commodity channel index at 82, the (ADX) average directional index at 34, and the Awesome oscillator at 8,991 all signal neutral momentum. However, the momentum indicator at 7,102 tends to decline, while the (MACD) moving average convergence divergence at 3,884 shows a positive signal. The divergence between these indicators emphasizes the contradictory market outlook, reinforcing the importance of price action and volume analysis to confirm the trend. Support from (MA) moving averages continues to rise. All short- to long-term moving averages—ranging from the 10-period (EMA) exponential moving average at 102.359 to the 200-period (SMA) simple moving average at 92.316—are in bullish territory. This alignment signals latent strength, although immediate consolidation requires vigilance. With the general trend still intact but the short-term direction uncertain, traders are advised to maintain disciplined risk controls and wait for confirmation before initiating large positions.

Bull's opinion: Bitcoin maintains a bullish structure supported by a strong position on all exponential moving averages (EMA) and simple moving averages (SMA), from short to long time frames. The MACD (moving average convergence divergence) is still in buy mode, indicating potential upward momentum. If the price can break and hold above the resistance level of $105,000 with a surge in volume, the likelihood of the price rising back to new highs is very high. Bear's opinion: Despite having long-term strength, Bitcoin shows vulnerability in the short term through neutral to bearish oscillation indicators and multiple failures at the resistance level of $105,000. The consolidation with low volume on the hourly and 4-hour charts, along with increasing selling pressure as prices decline, suggests a potential correction. A drop below $100,000 would confirm a bearish shift and could trigger a decline towards the support zone of $95,000–$90,000.