Bitcoin Approaches the 105,000 USD Mark: Strong Growth Signal or Adjustment Risk?

Bitcoin is approaching the important psychological milestone of 105,000 USD, drawing significant attention from the investment community. In the past month, the largest cryptocurrency in the world has seen strong growth due to increased interest from financial institutions and a return of optimism in the market. However, some conflicting market factors may hinder Bitcoin from reaching new heights. Strong Buying Power: Individual and Institutional Investors Intensify Accumulation Investor activity in recent times shows a clear accumulation trend. In just the past week, over 30,072 BTC — equivalent to over 3.13 billion USD — has been purchased. At the same time, the amount withdrawn from exchanges far exceeds the amount deposited, pushing the net position index on the exchange down to its lowest level in 4 months. This is a classic sign of the accumulation phase. Many investors are afraid of missing out on profit opportunities (FOMO), so they are rushing to buy more as the price of Bitcoin approaches historical highs. Long-term investors are also increasing their positions, showing confidence in the potential breakout in the near future.

Hidden Selling Pressure: "Liveliness" Indicator Warns of Profit Taking Pressure Although the accumulation trend is very clear, on-chain data shows that the market is also showing mixed signals. The Liveliness indicator, an important metric reflecting the behavior of long-term investors (LTHs), has surged since the beginning of May and is currently at its highest level in several weeks. The increase in this index indicates that the BTC coins that had previously been "asleep" are starting to be activated again — meaning that long-term investors may be taking profits. If this trend continues, the market will face new selling pressure, threatening the upward momentum driven by recent buying.

Key Resistance Level: 106,265 USD is the Immediate Barrier Currently, Bitcoin is trading around 104,231 USD, just a short distance from the psychological resistance level of 105,000 USD. However, technical data shows that the real resistance lies at 106,265 USD — a price level that has acted as a price ceiling since December 2024. Although the historical peak remains at 109,588 USD, the 106,265 USD mark is currently the closest obstacle that Bitcoin needs to overcome. In the context of potential selling pressure from LTHs and the mixed sentiment in the market, conquering this price level is not easy at all. If it cannot surpass this mark, Bitcoin is likely to adjust back to the support level of 100,000 USD — an important price zone that maintains the current upward momentum. Price Surge Scenario: Breakthrough and Establishing New Peak On the contrary, if Bitcoin successfully breaks the level of 106,265 USD and turns it into a solid support level, the market could gain strong momentum. This would open up opportunities for BTC to return to its historical peak of 109,588 USD, or even set a new price record above 110,000 USD. Once it surpasses the old peak, the entire current negative scenario will be invalidated, and Bitcoin could enter a new promising growth cycle.

Conclusion The Bitcoin market is currently at a crossroads: on one side is a strong accumulation wave, and on the other side is selling pressure from long-term coin holders. The ability to break through or fail at the level of 106,265 USD will determine the next trend — either a downward adjustment to 100,000 USD or a strong breakout to an unprecedented price range.