OscarCesar
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#BTC# The logic of the market is silently changing, and we might be on the brink of a major shift in the market.


Recently, the market has been behaving increasingly strangely. U.S. stocks surged sharply, and the dollar should have followed suit, but it did not move, and U.S. Treasury bonds continued to fall. This phenomenon of "going against the tide" is obviously a logical mismatch behind it. The dollar should have strengthened when normal market confidence was restored, but now it is quite the opposite.
Asian currencies have collectively risen these days, it's not a coincidence, it's that funds are accelerating their exit from the United States, heading toward other markets. It's not a wait, it's a withdrawal.
It was previously mentioned "Dollar Tide 2.0": big capital had already implemented its strategy during the rate hike cycle. In this round of Bitcoin's rise, many people did not get on the train, the reason being that the thinking is too habitual: they think that if there is a rate hike, it must fall, and if there is a rate cut, it must rise. The market evolves in cycles, but the paths are often different; copying past experiences often leads to losses.
Nowadays, the interconnection between the dollar, U.S. stocks, and U.S. debt has completely broken down. The dollar no longer moves in sync with U.S. stocks; in fact, it is the small investors who are holding up the market, while institutions are reducing their positions. A report from Goldman Sachs clearly indicates that this wave of increase in U.S. stocks is the result of small investors "buying more as it goes up," while institutions are slowly exiting.
Many people say that funds have been allocated to buy gold as a hedge, but gold is now also showing clear signs of reaching its peak, and shorts have almost been purged. Traditional safe-haven assets, such as the yen and the euro, are also weak, and funds have begun to speculate on some unconventional currencies, like the Hong Kong dollar and the Thai baht, which is akin to speculating with "altcoins" in the currency circle, indicating that major assets are no longer safe.
What is the essence? The market is looking for an exit from the dollar system, even if that involves greater risk. Buffett said he won't sell Japanese trading companies in the next 30 years, and the essence of this is also a judgment on the demand for long-term protection.
What is the relationship with cryptocurrencies? Once the dollar credit continues to collapse, the next wave of funds looking for an exit will likely head towards crypto assets. And currently, the altcoins and commodities that remain at low levels are potential explosion points.
It is very likely that we are in the key phase of the last wave of changes. If we catch it, the space for future gains will be very large; if we miss it, when the bull market arrives, we will only be the ones buying at high prices.
Remember: the true logic behind the rise of Bitcoin is not how impressive it is in itself, but that the dollar and the fiat currency system are worsening. What we gain is the money that is continuously devalued in dollar credit.
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The content is for reference only, not a solicitation or offer. No investment, tax, or legal advice provided. See Disclaimer for more risks disclosure.
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