Customs Duties, Inflation, and a Weak USD Could Drive Bitcoin Prices Higher, Grayscale Says

Bitcoin is currently trading at $79,150, showing a modest increase of 1.8% in the past 24 hours, although it has still fallen about 4% over the past week. Recent price volatility is occurring against the backdrop of rising global trade tensions and new tariffs announced by President Donald Trump. These tariffs, aimed at certain countries, have caused broader volatility in the market. While stocks were heavily affected - with the S&P 500 falling 12% from April 2 to April 8 - the decline of Bitcoin during the same period was much less severe. This has prompted analysts to reassess Bitcoin's relationship with traditional markets. Grayscale's Head of Research, Zach Pandl, noted that Bitcoin's smaller-than-expected decline, despite its high volatility, reflects its increasing independence from traditional financial markets. Typically, Bitcoin's volatility is about three times that of the S&P 500. By that measure, a 12% drop in stocks would have caused a 36% decline in Bitcoin. Instead, this cryptocurrency has only fallen by about one third of that estimate. Pandl argues that tariffs are a direct shock to stocks, not Bitcoin, and the volatility of the traditional market, as reflected in the VIX index, is currently equivalent to the options market of Bitcoin. Grayscale argues that current macroeconomic conditions—rising inflation, slowing GDP, and geopolitical instability—could create a favorable environment for assets like Bitcoin. Comparing that to the stagflation of the 1970s, the company points out that while stocks and bonds underperformed, the value of gold skyrocketed. Bitcoin, often described as "digital gold," could play a similar role right now, though it doesn't have decades of historical data like gold. The ongoing trade war is also affecting the currency market. The US dollar is weakening, due to tariffs and changes in global alliances, which may encourage countries to diversify their reserve assets. Although Iran is currently the only country with a central bank listing Bitcoin as a reserve asset, some sovereign wealth funds have invested in it. Reports suggest that the US is considering creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve fund, highlighting the growing interest in Bitcoin at the state level. Individual Bitcoin miners are also attracting attention. A recent block was successfully mined by an individual, bringing the miner 3.125 BTC (, about 259,637 dollars at that time ), highlighting the occasional success that smaller participants can still achieve in the network. Although Bitcoin temporarily surged above $82,000 after a 90-day tax pause on non-retaliatory countries, it remains 26% lower than its all-time high of $109,114. Analysts remain cautious. Nic Puckrin of Coin Bureau stated that the temporary relief does not address the potential trade conflict. While short-term sentiment is fragile, long-term confidence in Bitcoin remains strong.