Dogecoin is facing a decisive moment: Will it hold steady or fall freely?

Dogecoin is once again in a difficult position as this meme coin tests a long-term trend line that began during the exciting days of 2021. Both the daily and weekly charts emphasize the importance of this zone, as the market hovers dangerously near a crossroads that could determine whether the current price will fall further for another quarter or will recover strongly. Dogecoin may fall even deeper On the weekly chart, the trend line is sloping down from historical highs near the peak of the previous cycle and converging with the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.786 at around $0.167. Therefore, Dogecoin finds itself on uncertain ground as it slips below the Fibonacci level of 0.786 at $0.167 but still clings to the long-term trend line, which is currently fluctuating around $0.157.

The ability to maintain on the border of DOGE may determine whether the market can avoid a new sell-off that could wipe out a quarter of its current value. Notably, DOGE has fallen about 66% from the peak of over $0.48 in December last year, indicating how much buyers need to hold tightly to the border to avoid another wave of selling pressure. Zooming in on the daily timeframe, the story becomes clearer. After Dogecoin broke out of the downtrend channel on February 24, it attempted to fight back on March 2 and 3, only to be quickly pushed below the bottom of the channel once again. The subsequent rejections on March 6 and March 26 along the lower boundary confirm that the sellers have little intention of facilitating DOGE's easy return. This persistent rejection accompanies dwindling volume, indicating that buyers have struggled to gather the necessary momentum to regain a foothold inside the channel.

The weekly EMA lines are spread above the price, notably the main lines are at levels above $0.16, while the daily EMA has become a resistance level in the short term that Dogecoin has repeatedly failed to surpass in recent sessions. If DOGE falls below the multi-year trendline, it may retest the support zone around $0.14 as on March 10 and 11—marked in red on the chart. If DOGE fails to hold the trendline and slips below the $0.14 mark, then the next major pivot point will be $0.12, symbolized by the prominent blue line. Such a pullback would equate to an additional 25% decrease from the current price, potentially deepening the bearish sentiment into the second quarter. All eyes are currently focused on the interaction between price and the decade-long slope, which has served both as a magnet and a buffer in many market cycles. If buyers confidently step in at the intersection of the multi-year line and the Fibonacci level of 0.786, the next challenge will be to reclaim the lower boundary of the descending channel—which Dogecoin has failed to do despite multiple attempts. On the other hand, a decisive break below $0.14 will increase the likelihood of capitulation down to $0.12 or potentially lower. Currently, it seems that the fate of Dogecoin depends on whether this long-term structural support can weather the storm. If it can, this vulnerable meme coin may still script a comeback. If not, the market may face a free fall that evokes memories of its most tumultuous chapters in history.