The Fate of Bitcoin Depends on This Important 'Dead Cross' Signal: What Will Happen Next?

Bitcoin has witnessed a notable price consolidation over the past few weeks, trading between $84,000 and $86,000. Although there was an initial surge in price, this cryptocurrency has faced a 3.7% fall over the past week and nearly 10% over the past month, signaling a stagnation phase in its upward momentum. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is priced at 84,263 dollars, raising questions about the future trajectory of this asset as investors await a clear direction. Dead Cross: A signal indicating that the price may fall? BilalHuseynov, a contributor to CryptoQuant's QuickTake platform, has provided valuable insights into the current market behavior of Bitcoin. In his latest post titled "Will Bitcoin fall further?", he highlighted key on-chain metrics that could help predict the next price movement of Bitcoin. His analysis revolves around the behavior of two important metrics: Realized Cap and Thermo Cap, with a particular focus on their recent crossover, which could have significant implications for the price direction of Bitcoin. Huseynov explains that the Realized Cap index, which tracks the total value of Bitcoin based on the last fluctuating price, provides a more accurate insight into the economic value of the network. On the other hand, the Thermo Cap measures the total capital that has been injected into the BTC network through mining. When the Thermo Cap drops below the Realized Cap — known as the "Dead Cross" — it signals that Bitcoin may be heading towards a price drop. Huseynov pointed out that this situation is happening and predicted that the price of BTC could fall to a low of $75,000 if the second Dead Cross occurs. Is the Bitcoin market still healthy? In addition to Huseynov's analysis, another analyst from CryptoQuant, Banker, has provided insights into the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) data, tracking the movement of BTC that has been inactive for a long time. Since March 2025, the 60-day moving average of CDD remains low, indicating that long-term holders are not selling their Bitcoin in large quantities. This behavior is often a sign of confidence among seasoned investors, suggesting they believe in the long-term potential of Bitcoin. The absence of significant spikes in CDD indicates that the market is not experiencing extreme price volatility, which may signal a consolidation phase or a final upward trend as selling pressure remains low.

This development also coincides with recent reports that short-term holders show less selling pressure after their initial profit-taking move.