Polymarket: Nearly 50% chance the United States will fall into recession after Liberation Day

Polymarket currently forecasts nearly a 50% chance that the United States will fall into an economic recession this year, as the import taxes imposed by Trump under Trump's Interpretation Day have exceeded expectations. Both the cryptocurrency market and the traditional market are in decline, and economic developers are becoming unstable.

Even if Trump adjusts tax policy, the negative impact is still spreading. The economic reputation of the United States is affected, while global trading partners are seeking new agreements without the participation of this country and the tariff calculations are inconsistent.

Polymarket predicts recession

Polymarket is an online prediction platform that allows users to bet on various topics. This platform is expected to gain popularity this year as users anticipate accurate presidential election outcomes. Currently, the market's apprehensive sentiment is being optimally reflected on Polymarket, as the odds regarding the U.S. economic outlook have increased by nearly 50%.

Recession rate | Source: PolymarketMarkets are flooded with pessimistic sentiment and concerns about recession, but a specific situation has pushed the situation beyond limits. On the launch day of President Trump, he announced tariffs on all countries around the world. This plan includes a minimum tax of 10% on all allies and trade, exceeding the anticipated pessimistic levels.

In addition, differences in tax calculations add to market instability. Flavor, the executive order declared even uninhabited islands would be subject to a tax on the United States. A user's social network has received taxes that are allowed to be paid as copied directly from charts on Wikipedia.

Although the cryptocurrency market has anticipated these tax levels, the negative impacts are unavoidable when such high taxes are applied. Currently, some errors have been priced in, but major cryptocurrencies are still not ready to face the severe consequences. The predicted downturn rate of Polymarket has surged, while the price of Bitcoin has dropped significantly.

Bitcoin price performance 4 hours | Source: TradingviewAs soon as the tax levels are reversed, Polymarket's recession forecast could still become a reality. The threat from tariffs has significantly impacted the global trade structure in many important ways.

The flavors, long-time competitors such as China, Japan, and South Korea have all reacted to these tax policies. If the international community begins to see the United States as an unreliable partner, countries may shift to seeking new trade agreements without the participation of this country, thereby increasing instability in the global market.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investment should be researched thoroughly before making any decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

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Minh Anh

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