This is why the XRP price will crash even though the volume ratio of RLUSD to TVL is 37%

The price of XRP has fallen sharply in the first quarter even after some notable news about Ripple, including the conclusion of the SEC lawsuit and the growth of the ecosystem. Ripple was trading at $2.20 on April 1, a decrease of 35% from its peak in 2025. There is a risk that the XRP token will soon collapse, even as the Ripple volume USD (RLUSD) skyrockets on the total value locked (TVL). Ripple volume USD (RLUSD) has skyrocketed compared to TVL. One of Ripple's strategies to develop its ecosystem is the launch of RLUSD, a managed stablecoin. Ripple hopes that its regulation and transparency will help dethrone Tether and USD Coin. Recent data shows that the stablecoin RLUSD remains a small factor in the stablecoin sector. It has a market capitalization of over 243 million USD, a small figure in an industry valued at over 237 billion USD. However, a closely monitored metric shows that RLUSD is in a good position. It has a volume on the total value locked (TVL) of 37%. This figure is much higher than other stablecoins. For example, USDC has a rate of 14.26%, while Tether is slightly slower at 34.5%.

A higher ratio means that holders of RLUSD are using it to process daily transactions. It also means that higher liquidity is provided to facilitate trading. A stablecoin with a low ratio means it is not being used. RLUSD has become the largest unit in the XRP Ledger network, along with other notable units such as Sologenic, Crypto Trading Fund, Coreum, and XRP Army. The price of XRP is also lagging despite other bullish catalysts like the SEC ending the Ripple lawsuit, while many companies have applied for a spot XRP ETF. Furthermore, Ripple is working to become the best alternative to SWIFT, a network that processes billions of dollars every day. Technical analysis of XRP indicates the possibility of a fall. Although Ripple has some solid fundamentals, there is still a risk that it will trend down sharply in the coming weeks. There is a risk that the price of XRP is about to form a death cross as the gap between the 50-day and 200-day weighted moving averages shrinks. A death cross is a high-risk pattern in technical analysis. Another risk is that the price of Ripple has formed a head and shoulders pattern, with a neckline at around 2 USD. This price level coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, drawn by connecting the lowest point of 2024 and the highest level of this year.

XRP price target Therefore, a drop below this neckline would be a victory for the bears, who would trigger panic selling. A further downtrend would push the token down, potentially reaching $1.50, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The forecast for Ripple's price fall will be canceled if this cryptocurrency soars above the right shoulder at the level of 3 USD. Such a move could trigger a jump to the YTD high of 3.4 USD, followed by the psychological level at 5 USD.