Four Signals That Could Push Bitcoin Higher

Is Bitcoin at $80,000 out of reach? For some analysts, this is completely the opposite: this threshold will be a buying opportunity. While the market oscillates between bullish enthusiasm and fear of correction, some fundamental indicators invite a reassessment of certainties. Behind the numbers, a fundamental momentum is emerging, quite different from previous cycles. Bitcoin has not yet reached its peak, but there may still be room for growth. A Trust Signal in the Ecosystem On March 28, Bitcoin reached a local peak of $87,241 before falling to $81,331 on March 31. This 6.8% drop triggered $230 million in liquidations of long positions on Bitcoin futures. Such a brutal correction occurs against the backdrop of global tensions in traditional markets, as investors react to a series of negative macroeconomic signals. Among them, the announcement by the United States regarding a 25% tax on foreign cars on March 26 has raised concerns about a global trade war. After this event, several major financial institutions have revised down their growth forecasts for the U.S. stock market. Market indicators show that risk-averse sentiment is rising again, not just limited to the cryptocurrency sector: S&P 500 futures hit their lowest level since March 14; Goldman Sachs cut its year-end target for the S&P 500, lowering it from 6,200 to 5,700 points; Barclays also cut its forecast from 6,600 to 5,900 points; Gold hit a new record high of $3,100 an ounce on March 31, confirming its status as a safe haven in times of uncertainty; Meanwhile, the (DXY) dollar index fell from 107.60 to 104.10 from February to the end of March, reflecting the gradual weakening of the US currency. In this context, Bitcoin seems to have been caught up in a global pullback from risk assets. However, this decline has not been accompanied, as one might expect, by fundamental warning signals regarding the state of the network or investor confidence. And this is exactly what the following analysis reveals. Bitcoin and S&P 500: Heading Towards Decoupling? While the S&P 500 index has shown positive performance since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin seems to be gradually breaking away from its usual correlation with the stock market. This separation may mean that investors now view BTC as a distinct asset, potentially used as a hedge against inflation or macroeconomic instability. We are witnessing a shift in the market's perception of Bitcoin. Another important metric is the MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value), which compares the current market capitalization to the realized capitalization of Bitcoin, and is still below the historical threshold related to market peaks. In other words, even at $80,000, Bitcoin will not be in an overvalued state. Historically, this ratio allows for predicting the peaks of a bullish market, and the current level indicates that significant bullish potential remains. This market momentum adjustment could redefine the strategies of institutional and retail investors. As Bitcoin breaks away from traditional stock market logic and the fundamentals remain strong, the scenario of a prolonged bullish cycle will become credible. If macroeconomic and legal conditions remain favorable, the possibility of continuing the bullish trend cannot be ruled out, even though the price levels are generally considered high by the public.