Where Will the Bitcoin Price Be at the End of the Year? Analyst Outlined His Scenario: "Patience Will Be Tested"

Some experts warn of a prolonged downturn reminiscent of the 2022 bear market, while Bitcoin's recent drop may be far from over.

Cryptocurrency hedge fund Lekker Capital's founder Quinn Thompson predicts that Bitcoin could drop below $60,000 by the end of the year and could indicate a slow and painful ordeal for investors.

In an interview, Thompson said, "I can see us returning to five handles by the end of the year." "Five handles" refers to a price between 50,000 and 59,999 dollars, which contrasts sharply with Bitcoin's current turbulent level of 83,000 dollars and represents nearly a 50% drop from its peak of 109,000 dollars a little over two months ago.

Thompson, unlike the past cryptocurrency market crashes marked by extreme volatility, expects a slow decline that could test investors' patience. "I don't think this will happen quickly, so it will be very painful and shocking for people because nothing about the current market conditions is very volatile compared to large liquidations and crashes," he explained.

The analyst has continuously maintained a bearish outlook, viewing the recent bullish rhetoric surrounding the White House's crypto initiatives, including the U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund and Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, as "empty talk" and "sell the news" events. Additionally, downplaying the significance of MicroStrategy's ongoing Bitcoin purchases, represented by (MSTR), he argues that these represent one of the few consistent sources of demand in a weak market.

At the core of Thompson's downturn thesis is the belief that the economic policies of the Trump administration will create difficulties for the market over the next six to nine months. Thompson highlights four main challenges:

• Cuts in Government Spending: The Department of State Efficiency, led by Elon Musk, aims to reduce the U.S. budget deficit by cutting government spending, which has been the main driver of employment growth in recent years. Musk has set an ambitious target to cut government spending by $1 trillion by May, with a broader goal of reducing the federal budget by 15% to $7 trillion annually. Even if D.O.G.E falls short, the cuts are likely to impact consumer sentiment and economic growth in the near term.
• Combating Immigration: The Trump administration's renewed focus on border security and deportation processes may tighten the labor market. Thompson stated, "Immigration positively impacts growth because it puts pressure on wages." Without a stable labor supply, businesses may struggle with rising wage costs, which could lead to potential economic slowdowns.
• Customs Tax Uncertainty: The administration's fluctuating stance on customs tariffs has created uncertainty for businesses, delaying investment and hiring decisions. Although not all proposed customs taxes are implemented, the unpredictability itself is a deterrent factor for market stability.
• FED Policy: Despite a 100 basis point interest rate cut at the end of 2024, the FED continues to act cautiously regarding further easing due to ongoing inflation concerns. Thompson predicts additional interest rate cuts of 25 to 75 basis points in 2025, but expects these to be implemented intermittently in the second half of the year. Thompson, who stated that "there is much more coordination between the Treasury and the FED than people think," suggested that Trump, Treasury Secretary Bessent, and FED Chairman Powell are aligned in their efforts to curb inflation, even at the expense of asset prices.

As these economic pressures increase, Thompson believes that the downward risk for Bitcoin and other risky assets continues. Thompson also views the White House's lack of urgency in countering a potential recession as a signal of decline.

Although the administration appears to be committed to a tightening monetary strategy, Thompson suggests that policy changes could occur, especially if economic pain becomes very severe ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.