QCP Asia: Ether Derivatives Market Experiences Fluctuation, with Pectra Upgrade as a Key Driver

On February 18, PANews reported that according to QCP Asia analysis, there was a significant change in the term structure of the Options market as it approached expiration in March, especially in the ETHOptions market, reflecting traders' positioning before the ETH 2.0 upgrade. The upgrade is currently in testing and is expected to go live in early April. Looking back at past upgrade events, The Merge upgrade in September 2022 followed the typical "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern, with ETH rising over 100% from the low point in June, but experiencing a pullback after the event. In contrast, the Shanghai upgrade in April 2023 (allowing staking withdrawals) faced pessimism, with the market concerned about oversupply. However, when selling pressure failed to materialize, ETH subsequently rose by 30%. Currently, traders may be preparing for another wave of volatility, with implied volatility tilting towards bullish since March 28, which may lay the foundation for the next market layout, especially after the Trump tariff event, the cryptocurrency market has entered a wait-and-see stage. However, the market also faces a counterforce— including the collapse of LIBRA, the fall of SOL and ETH to pre-election levels, and the close to historically high proportion of Bitcoin market value. In addition to market catalysts, the sustained recovery of altcoins may require substantial progress in real-world adoption and network development, rather than just relying on speculative capital inflows.