Why won't Bitcoin fall below 30K again?

Will Bitcoin (BTC) still see a significant price correction? According to Willy Woo, a well-known Bitcoin price expert, unlikely. The on-chain analyst used blockchain data that mapped the average buying price of Bitcoin investors to determine that the asset might not fall below $30,000 again.

In an X post published on Tuesday, Woo shared the "Bitcoin Cost Base Density Map" – a contour plot that tracks the supply of bitcoin based on the price at which long-term investors buy it. The line chart shows a dense gray band that reflects the price at which most of Bitcoin's supply moved at the time, reflecting a "strong agreed value."

The analyst claims that the range has been a reliable price support since the birth of bitcoin and has never been retested under three specific conditions. These conditions include a strong range of the agreed price, the emergence of a bear market, and the upcoming "halving" of Bitcoin.

This is what Bitcoin is like today: not only has the asset risen 130% since the infamous FTX collapse last year, but the next halving (a cyclical event that halves the rate of new BTC issuance) will come in April 2024.

Woo's chart shows that in the history of bitcoin, such a channel has formed 8 times under relevant conditions and has always supported the price of bitcoin at such times. "Bitcoin is far from saturating the commodity market," Wu wrote. "What we've seen in the 13 years of this chart is the widespread adoption of BTC. ”

"Only the price of spot ETFs will go up," he added. However, not everyone believes in Woo's assumptions: price analyst TXMC noted that Woo made a similar prediction in 2021 that Bitcoin would never fall below $40,000 again, but failed the following year. "He's back, and the floor price is only 20 percent below current levels," he said. "We're really in a loop. ”

Another popular analyst, Plan B, made a similar prediction on Sunday, claiming that the price of Bitcoin would remain between $32,000 and $64,000 until the next halving. The analyst's estimate is based on his signature stock flow model – a rough model of Bitcoin's price appreciation based on scarcity.

However, the predictions of Plan B have also been seriously missed in the past. Analysts expect the price of BTC to reach $135,000 in December of that year in 2021, although the asset only reached its peak of $69,000 in November. He also predicted in February that Bitcoin would rise to $100,000 by the end of 2023. As of November, the asset was trading at just $36,000.

（数据来源：Andrew Throuvalas）