The Next Decade of Ethereum: Vitalik Buterin's Vision and Challenges

Source: Bankless Podcast

Content Organization: Peter_Techub News

Image source: "Monday Podcast"

Ethereum, the world's leading blockchain platform, has celebrated its tenth anniversary. Founder Vitalik Buterin reflected on the achievements and challenges of the past decade in an exclusive interview with the Bankless podcast, while also looking ahead to the development direction of Ethereum in the next ten years. From the initial white paper to now managing nearly a trillion dollars in assets as the "world's ledger," Ethereum's growth has exceeded everyone's expectations. However, Vitalik believes that Ethereum's mission is far from complete, and it will continue to play a key role in decentralization, privacy protection, and the construction of global financial infrastructure. This article will delve into the core viewpoints expressed by Vitalik in the interview, exploring Ethereum's past, present, and future.

A Decade of Ethereum: From White Paper to World Ledger

1.1 Exceeding Expectations in Growth

In 2013, when Vitalik wrote the Ethereum white paper, he saw it merely as a side project, planning to complete it in a few months and return to university for further studies. However, the development trajectory of Ethereum far exceeded expectations. After the mainnet launch in 2015, Ethereum quickly grew into an ecosystem that supports innovative applications such as decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs). Vitalik admitted: "It is definitely much bigger than I expected, it took much longer than I anticipated, but the results also far exceeded expectations."

The success of Ethereum is reflected not only in technical aspects but also in its promotion of an open and decentralized culture. Vitalik pointed out that Ethereum has provided many people with a new mindset, making decentralization the default option. This culture is reminiscent of the open-source software movement of the 1980s, but it has been given new life in the blockchain space. Concepts like prediction markets and DAOs have moved from theory to reality, showcasing the unique value of Ethereum as a "testing ground."

1.2 Accidents and Challenges

Ethereum's ten years have not been smooth sailing. Vitalik recalled several unexpected challenges, including the 2016 DAO incident, the ETC hard fork war, and the dusting attack in Shanghai. These events were not only technical challenges but also tested the resilience and collaborative ability of the Ethereum community. Moreover, the explosive growth of NFTs, the rapid rise of DeFi, and the delays in Proof of Stake (PoS) all caught Vitalik off guard.

Nevertheless, Ethereum successfully faced these challenges through a strategy of multi-path parallel exploration. For example, in the development of zero-knowledge proof (ZK-SNARKs) technology, multiple teams within the ecosystem collaborated to achieve technological breakthroughs. Vitalik emphasized that this culture of "multi-directional collaboration" is key to Ethereum's ability to continuously innovate.

The Current State of Ethereum: Dilemmas and Reflections in 2024

2.1 The Low Point of 2024

2024 is a challenging year for Ethereum. The sluggish price of ETH has sparked debates within the community, with some feeling disappointed by the decline of DAOs and NFTs, while the misalignment of incentives between Layer-1 (L1) and Layer-2 (L2) has intensified infighting. Vitalik believes that the price drop is just a superficial reason; the deeper issue lies in "some storylines have ended without new narratives to replace them." For example, the centralized roadmap of Rollups has led to blockchain fragmentation, making interoperability between L2s a new bottleneck.

The leadership changes at the Ethereum Foundation also reflect the community's self-adjustment. Vitalik mentioned that the new leadership team is more focused on L1 scaling, privacy protection, and optimizing user experience, and these changes have injected new vitality into Ethereum.

2.2 Controversies in the Rollup Roadmap

Ethereum's Rollup-centric roadmap aims to expand network capacity through L2, but it also raises concerns about fragmentation and economic coordination. Vitalik acknowledges that the independence of L2 might lead them to drift away from L1 control, potentially forming independent blockchain ecosystems. He suggests that maintaining a strong position for L1 is crucial, especially by ensuring that assets are issued on L1 to uphold a decentralized security model.

In addition, interoperability between L2s is currently a focus. Vitalik emphasized that shortening the asset transfer time between L2s (from one week to one hour or even 12 seconds) will significantly improve capital efficiency and enhance the overall competitiveness of the Ethereum ecosystem.

The Future of Ethereum: A Dual Evolution of Technology and Culture

3.1 Technical Roadmap: Moving Towards "Maintenance Mode"

Vitalik has set a clear goal for the technological development of Ethereum over the next decade: to achieve the "finish line" or "maintenance mode" of the technical roadmap. This specifically includes the following aspects:

Comprehensive application of zero-knowledge proofs (ZK-SNARKs): optimizing all components with ZK, replacing existing solutions with more efficient algorithms (such as Poseidon), and achieving ultra-lightweight node verification through ZK-SNARKs.

Defaulting to Privacy Protection: From payments to complex DeFi applications, privacy should be a core part of the user experience. Vitalik suggested that privacy should not be a feature of standalone wallets, but rather an inherent characteristic of all wallets.

Formal verification: Implement full-stack formal verification from the application layer to the hardware layer to ensure the security and credibility of Ethereum.

Self-custody: Develop a self-custody solution that is user-friendly for ordinary users, balancing sovereignty and convenience.

These technical goals aim to make Ethereum a global financial infrastructure that is trustless and based on cryptographic and code verification. Vitalik likened this vision to a "clean water source," believing that the era of "trust me" security is declining, and Ethereum will lead a new era based on cryptography.

3.2 Culture and Values: Balancing Cyberpunk and Mainstream

Another challenge for Ethereum is to find a balance between the values of cypherpunks and mainstream acceptance. Vitalik believes that Ethereum should remain diverse, accommodating different viewpoints and participants, but should not fully cater to mainstream trends at the expense of its core principles. He uses privacy protection as an example, emphasizing its importance as a core aspect of the cypherpunk spirit, while suggesting that technologies like privacy pools (such as Railgun) can help balance regulatory demands with user freedom.

On a cultural level, Vitalik advocates that Ethereum should avoid falling into a "sloganeering" mindset and should instead promote progress through concrete actions. For example, he supports DAO and public goods funding mechanisms based on prediction markets to create an open and fair ecosystem. Additionally, he cites Argentine President Javier Milei as an example, pointing out that Ethereum can draw inspiration from the combination of his "Bronze Age" temperament and sound policies, maintaining a spirit of freedom while achieving tangible results.

3.3 Economic Coordination and the Role of ETH

Vitalik emphasized that ETH, as the economic core of the Ethereum ecosystem, is key to community consensus. He supports the financialization of ETH assets (such as ETH fund management companies), believing it brings capital inflows and economic security to the ecosystem. However, he also warned about the risks of excessive leverage, emphasizing that responsible financial innovation is crucial for the long-term stability of Ethereum.

In the economic coordination between L1 and L2, Vitalik proposed to ensure L1's core position in asset issuance and liquidity by increasing L1's minimum fees (such as Blob fees) and optimizing interoperability. This not only enhances Ethereum's decentralization characteristics but also provides L2 with stronger network effects.

Vitalik's personal mission: from Ethereum to a broader future

In the past decade, Vitalik has grown from a teenager into a thought leader in the blockchain space. He has stated that in the next ten years, he will continue to work on improving Ethereum while also participating in broader projects, such as biodefense and underlying technology security. He views Ethereum as part of a larger vision—building an open, secure, and trustworthy global computing ecosystem.

Vitalik likens Ethereum to a "sandbox", allowing developers to explore innovations across different dimensions. He encourages the community to maintain openness while adhering to "convexity" in critical areas such as privacy and decentralization, to ensure that Ethereum stays true to its core values.

Summary: The Next Decade of Ethereum

The first decade of Ethereum has laid the foundation for it to be the "world ledger," and the second decade will determine whether it can become a pillar of global finance and computing. Vitalik's vision is clear and grand: to achieve trustless security through technological innovations (such as ZK-SNARKs and formal verification), to uphold the spirit of crypto-punk through privacy protection and decentralization, and to drive mainstream adoption through economic coordination and cultural diversity.

However, challenges still exist. The complexity of technology development, the coordination between L1 and L2, the balance between privacy and regulation, and the evolution of community culture all require the ongoing efforts of the Ethereum community. Vitalik is confident about the future: "We are entering a new era where the security of devices will become the default standard, and Ethereum will be an important force in achieving this goal."

The next decade of Ethereum is not just an evolution of technology, but a contest of values. It will continue to explore at the forefront of decentralization, writing an open, free, and secure digital future.