Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: CEX derivation continuous sell pressure hard to shake $100,000 key support

Since May 7, the price movement of Bitcoin has continued to fluctuate sideways between $100,000 and $110,000. Although there were several brief dips to a low of $98,000 in June, the price was able to rebound quickly, with the daily chart closing steadily above the $100,000 mark. The latest on-chain analysis reveals that during this sideways period, BTC withstood the ongoing selling pressure from the CEX derivation market.

CEX derivation selling pressure continues, BTC shows resilience

According to the Quicktake report by CryptoQuant analyst Boris Vest, Taker users on the CEX derivation trading platform have continuously engaged in selling operations for at least the past 45 days. A key indicator - Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) - has remained in negative territory during this period.

CVD Indicator Analysis: This indicator measures the net difference between market buy orders (aggressive buying) and market sell orders (aggressive selling) over a period of time. It helps traders identify whether the dominant force in the market is buying pressure or selling pressure, effective even when prices are stable.

BorisVest pointed out that CEX derivation traders seem to view every BTC price Rebound or increase as a selling opportunity, actively building short positions (shorting Bitcoin) through market sell orders. However, despite the strong cryptocurrency selling pressure continuing to exist, it has not succeeded in suppressing the price. BTC demonstrates strong Bitcoin price support capabilities, continuously digesting the selling activities and maintaining the key psychological level above $100,000.

Analysts added that as long as BTC can maintain its current range of $100,000 to $110,000 while effectively absorbing selling pressure, its Bitcoin upside potential still exists. He explained:

The CVD indicator is crucial here. It aggregates the activities of Takers and Makers (order placers) and presents the net buying and selling pressure in real-time. The continuous decline of CVD confirms the dominance of selling pressure. However, the price is unable to fall further under this pressure, which may suggest that Bitcoin is being quietly accumulated by institutional investors or large OTC buyers behind the scenes.

Market Divergence: Can Demand Keep Up with Supply?

However, some analysts have a different interpretation of the continuous selling pressure. For example, another analyst from CryptoQuant, Crazzyblockk, recently observed that new buyer demand is struggling to keep pace with the dual supply pressure: this includes newly mined BTC and profit-taking by long-term holders (LTH) of Bitcoin.

Is Bitcoin brewing a breakout? Key signals emerge

The resilience of the cryptocurrency market demonstrated by Bitcoin under heavy selling pressure in the CEX derivation market has once again sparked speculation about its potential breakthrough of the sideways range. Multiple data indicators suggest that BTC may be building momentum, preparing to enter a higher price range.

• On-chain chip exchange: Recent on-chain data shows that "weak hands" (short-term holders) are transferring their BTC holdings to larger, more stable investors (strong hands). This Bitcoin holding distribution change is often seen as a sign of a bullish market sentiment.
• Institutional Interest Growth: The institutional demand for Bitcoin continues to heat up, providing potential support for the market.
• Long-term Trend Indicator: The Bitcoin Annual Percentage Trend model predicts that BTC may reach a high of around $205,000 by the end of 2025 (Bitcoin Price Prediction 2025).

Current Bitcoin Price: As of the time of writing, the BTC trading price is $108,589, having increased slightly by 0.4% in the past 24 hours. The market is closely watching whether it can finally break through the resistance level of $110,000, starting a new cryptocurrency bull market.