Celestia(TIA) price prediction: a single day rise of 14% breaks the downtrend channel, but is the short positions pressure still present?

Celestia (TIA) Today's price movement is strong, long positions have successfully reversed the downward trend that lasted for several weeks, TIA coin price soared by 14% at its peak. According to Gate data, TIA reached a high of $1.68 during trading on July 7 and is currently stable at $1.65, with the current Celestia market capitalization being approximately $1.15 billion.

Technical Breakthrough Ignites Rebound: Descending Channel Broken

This TIA surge comes right after its daily chart broke through the downward channel pattern. The downward channel is typically formed by two parallel descending trend lines, characterized by consecutive lower lows and lower highs, indicating a persistent bearish signal.

In technical analysis, a breakout above a descending channel is often regarded as an early signal of a trend reversal. The confirmation of this technical pattern likely stimulated buying pressure, driving a significant intraday increase in the token.

Fundamental Catalysts: Expectations of Lotus Upgrade Boost Market Sentiment

The hype surrounding the upcoming Celestia Lotus upgrade is also evident, as this is the fourth major version of the protocol. According to reports, this Celestia protocol upgrade will:

• Reduce TIA token inflation rate
• Introduce the revised staking mechanism
• Enhance network interoperability

These developments are widely seen as positive catalysts for enhancing Celestia's long-term network utility and user growth. Currently, the Lotus upgrade has been launched on Celestia's Mocha testnet, and it is expected to be deployed to the mainnet beta in the coming weeks.

On-chain Data Alert: Short Selling Pressure and Risks Persist

Despite today's surge, the data on the Celestia blockchain paints a more cautious picture, and the short positions risk cannot be ignored:

• TVL (Total Value Locked) plummets: DeFiLlama data shows that the Celestia ecosystem DeFi protocol's TVL has dropped over 95% from its peak of $64.28 million in March 2024, currently standing at only $2.31 million.
• On-chain activity sluggish: The daily on-chain transaction fees, as a measure of user engagement, have dropped from $3,400 in March to currently around $200 on average per day, reflecting a sharp decline in on-chain activity.
• Market sentiment is sluggish: Social analysis platform Dexu AI shows that TIA social sentiment ranks last among major crypto assets, indicating a lack of positive interaction within the broader retail community. This starkly contrasts with the price rebound, raising questions about the sustainability of the current TIA upward trend without stronger fundamentals or community-driven support.
• 
• Selling Pressure from Early Investors: Early institutional investor Polychain Capital reportedly sold over $242 million worth of TIA tokens since the Token Generation Event (TGE). Although the company still holds approximately 44.7 million TIA (worth about $63.9 million), any further liquidation from this wallet could negatively impact the TIA coin price due to the increased circulating supply.
• Most holders are still at a loss: It should be noted that despite today's rebound, the current price of TIA is still down about 92% from its all-time high (ATH), which means that the vast majority of holders are still in a loss position. This dynamic increases the risk that if the token continues to rebound, investors may take profits near the break-even price, thus limiting the short-term upside potential.

TIA Price Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Momentum Signals

On the USDT chart on the 1st:

• MACD Indicator: The MACD line has crossed above the signal line, indicating an initial recovery of trend momentum. However, to achieve full bullish confirmation, both the MACD line and the signal line need to rise above the zero line, indicating a broader shift in momentum from negative to positive.
• RSI Indicator: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 49, slightly below the neutral level of 50. This reading indicates that while bearish pressure is weakening, long positions have not yet fully taken control. If the RSI can effectively break above 50, it will increase the likelihood of a bullish reversal.
• 

Given these complex momentum signals, TIA short-term price movement depends on whether the current bullish sentiment can be sustained. If it can be maintained, an effective daily closing price breakthrough of today's high of $1.68 may become a technical trigger for further upside.

Key resistance levels on the upside include the swing low of $1.93 on June 5 and the psychological level of $2.00.

Downside risk: If buying momentum weakens and the price fails to hold the immediate support level, a pullback to the $1.31 level remains a likely scenario. This would cause TIA to return to the recent consolidation range, delaying any meaningful trend reversal and keeping the coin within a broader sideways structure.