Bitcoin’s Current Bull Cycle Nears Potential Peak Based on Historical Timing Patterns

Previous Bitcoin cycle tops occurred 365, 520, and 550 days after halving events in 2013, 2017, and 2021.

The current cycle has reached 400 days, surpassing 2013 but remaining below 2017 and 2021 timeframes.

Historical patterns indicate a potential cycle top between September and November 2025, based on time-based projections.

Bitcoin is now in the advanced stages of its current bull cycle, according to new monthly chart data. The analysis uses the number of days between halving events and corresponding market tops to compare past and present cycle behavior. Based on previous timelines, the ongoing pattern indicates a narrowing window for the potential cycle peak.

Historical Data Shows Distinct Cycle Timing

According to an observation by CryptoFlow, it is notable that after each halving event including those of 2012, 2016, and 2020 a major price top has occurred. In the 2013 cycle, the market reached its peak approximately 365 days after the halving. The 2017 cycle saw a top after 520 days, while the 2021 peak occurred roughly 550 days post-halving.

Source: Crypto Flow (X)

It is based on these three historical periods that the cycle in question is compared to that when the recent cycle commenced following the latest halving that will occur on April 1, 2024. The current cycle has lasted approximately 400 days as of July, 3 2025. This time is already higher than that in 2013 but lower than in 2017 and 2021.

Projected Top Between September and November

If Bitcoin follows the 2017 pattern, a 520-day interval would place the cycle peak in mid-September 2025. A timeline similar to the 2021 top would extend the period to 550 days, pointing to October 2025. A longer interval of 580 days would imply a possible top in November 2025.

These projections narrow the potential window for Bitcoin’s cycle top between September and November 2025. Each projection aligns with distinct past market behaviors tied to the halving effect, using only elapsed days as a metric.

Visual Data Shows Market Expansion Over Time

The monthly candle chart displays significant price growth between each halving and subsequent peak. The 2013 cycle saw price levels move from double digits to above $1,000. The 2017 cycle expanded prices to nearly $20,000. By 2021, the peak approached $69,000.

The ongoing cycle shows continued upward movement, with the current price near $109,000. Though not confirmed as a cycle top, the 400-day mark has already brought Bitcoin to new highs. The visual chart uses purple zones to mark each top formation period, helping identify the duration and range for each cycle.

The timing between halving and peak continues to serve as a reference model across Bitcoin market cycles. Though outcomes vary, the consistency in delay between each halving and market top supports time-based projections. As Bitcoin surpasses 400 days post-halving, market watchers are tracking the calendar toward September through November for potential trend reversals.