XRP Bulls Eye $3, But This One Resistance Blocks the ETF Rally

Key Insights

• XRP is currently trading in a range between $2.00 and $2.35, with $2.35 acting as strong technical resistance.
• Despite strong possibilities of an XRP ETF approval by analysts and prediction markets, the $3 price level might be a tough nut to crack..
• A clear break above $2.35 is important for XRP to push towards $2.65 or higher.
• A drop below $2.00 could lead to a major dump towards $1.61 or even $1.00.

XRP is flirting with optimism amid the ETF speculation.

While this is ongoing, investors and analysts alike are becoming more curious: will this be the trigger for a breakout, or is this just another false hope?

Despite analysts and polymarket odds showing an estimated 89–95% chance of a spot XRP ETF being approved this year, XRP continues to struggle with breaking above its major resistance levels.

While many bullish traders are eyeing the $3 price level, several technical indicators show that this might be an overly optimistic bet:

At least for now.

The Stubborn Ceiling Keeping XRP Trapped Below $2.35

For months, XRP has been trading within a tight range of $2.00 to $2.35, according to the charts.

This upper resistance has proven hard to break, and even recent attempts to push above the 50-day simple moving average at $2.24 failed to hold.

Every time the bulls have made an attempt, the bears have quickly stepped in to knock the price down.

At the time of writing, the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $2.17 is acting as one of the most important price levels to watch on the charts.

This said, if XRP rebounds from this support, a retest of $2.35 will become very likely.

At the same time, an actual breakout might not be guaranteed yet.

If the price drops below the 20-day EMA and fails to hold at $2.06 or $2.00, XRP could easily tumble toward $1.61.

The Hopeful ETF Approval Odds

Much of the excitement from XRP comes from its favorable chances of gaining ETF approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Analysts like Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have placed the probability of approval for XRP, Solana and Litecoin ETFs at around 95%.

In addition, Polymarket odds also show a current reading of 88%, which is a major jump from around 57% in January.

While all of these predictions have been encouraging, historically, ETF approvals tend to take time to translate into real market movement.

One good example of this trend in action is Grayscale’s Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC), which includes XRP among assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

This product was approved for conversion into a spot ETF and indirectly lent credibility to XRP.

However, it is still not a dedicated XRP ETF, and until one hits the market, the token’s price action remains up for speculation.

“Coiling Up” or Headed Down?

Many analysts believe that XRP could be coiling up for a big move.

Some, like Mikybull Crypto, argue that the token is "coiling up," and could be gearing up to soar as high as $3.35 if major resistance levels are broken.

However, there’s a catch:

XRP’s chart is also showing a descending triangle pattern, which has a historically bearish outcome more than half the time.

This means the bullish predictions depend mostly on how well and quickly XRP can break above the $2.35 resistance.

A failure to break above this price level could lead to a sharp breakdown, especially if support levels near $2.00 and $1.80 fail to hold.

Overall, on the upside, $2.35 is still the gatekeeper to further gains.

A clean breakout above this level could open the door to $2.65 and even $2.76. If bullish momentum continues, $3.00 and beyond may even come into play.

On the downside, $2.06 and $2.00 are the most important support levels.

A breakdown here could send the price into a downward spiral towards $1.61 or even lower if the general market sentiment turns sour.

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