Bitcoin’s Supply Activity Dips 17%: Could This Lead to Major Market Moves?

Bitcoin's 30-day active supply has fallen by 17%, indicating reduced blockchain activity.

A similar drop in 2024 led to a significant price rally, raising questions about future trends.

Bitcoin's price remains stable as supply activity slows, signaling a potential consolidation phase.

Bitcoin’s on-chain activity has entered a cooling phase, according to recent data tracking active supply over time. The chart, covering the last four years, reveals a 17% drop in 30-day supply activity. Confirmed by Axel Adler, this decline mirrors patterns seen before Bitcoin’s previous rallies, including one that began in late 2024. Analysts are now watching to see if this slowdown will again precede significant price movement.

Current Supply Trends Signal Reduced Market Movement

According to a recent observation by CryptoQuant, the 30-day change in Bitcoin’s active supply has fallen to -17% in recent weeks. This figure reflects how much the share of active coins has declined compared to a month earlier. A negative value means fewer coins are changing addresses, showing reduced blockchain activity.

Source: CryptoQuant

In September 2024, a similar -17% reading occurred before a major rally began. The decline followed months of rising on-chain movement during Bitcoin’s strong uptrend. That pattern appears to be repeating, with the supply activity now entering a contraction phase. During these periods, prices often consolidate as fewer traders move assets.

Price Remains Stable While Activity Levels Drop

Bitcoin’s price has remained above $65,000 despite the pullback in address activity. The price line, shown in black, has traded sideways since early 2025. This suggests that traders may be waiting for new signals before making large moves. Meanwhile, the 30-day moving average of 180-day active supply continues to trend lower.

Throughout the 2021 and 2023 bull runs, this activity metric spiked with price. During those times, coin movements accelerated. Now, however, the declining activity could reflect profit-taking or reduced market participation.

Long-Term Activity Trends Show Market Consolidation

The chart also includes a 365-day change metric for 180-day active supply. This gray line has remained flat through most of 2025. That indicates limited growth in the number of newly active coins on the network

During earlier market expansions, this long-term measure rose sharply. Increased holder activity supported strong price moves In contrast, the current flat reading aligns with a period of market stability and reduced turnover. When activity levels fell in late 2024, Bitcoin’s price soon entered a strong upward phase

At that time, the purple 30-day change line also dropped below -15%. The current 17% reading mark is the lowest point since then. If past behavior repeats, the network may soon experience renewed interest. However, no assumptions are made regarding future moves.