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QCP: BTC has shown good resilience amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, with institutional buying providing support.
Gate News bot news, QCP pointed out in its market analysis that despite the escalating tensions in the Middle East, Bitcoin (BTC) has not shown signs of widespread panic. Following the initial panic triggered by last Friday's Iran-Israel news, Bitcoin has bounced back, recovering from a weekly low of $102,800 to $107,000. Mainstream Tokens and U.S. stock index futures have also experienced a similar rebound.
The strong price trend of BTC seems to be supported by continued institutional buying. Notably, Metaplanet and Strategy are insisting on buying the dips, while the spot BTC ETF has recorded inflows for the seventh consecutive week. The market appears to have regained its footing, especially after BTC managed to stay above the key psychological level of 100,000 USD despite an initial impact. Crucially, last Friday's slight 3% pullback seems trivial compared to last April when BTC dropped over 8% amid similar Iran-Israel turmoil.
More broadly speaking, in the face of rising geopolitical risks, the market appears unusually calm. The implied volatility on the front end of BTC is still below 40, while the volatility index (VIX) hovers around 20. Given this context, both levels are at historically low points. There has been inflows into U.S. Treasuries and a large amount of Asian government bonds, highlighting that the market has not fully shifted to a risk-off mode.
Nevertheless, a cautious undercurrent still exists. Iran may block the Strait of Hormuz, which could trigger a surge in oil prices, and if the situation escalates further or if the U.S. intervenes militarily directly, it could severely disrupt global risk assets.
It is worth mentioning that some people believe that these risks may actually have structural benefits for BTC. Given that the trading price of this asset is only slightly below 6% of its historical high, recent price trends have reinforced the notion that macroeconomic misalignment, an increasing burden of sovereign debt, and geopolitical vulnerabilities are driving the adoption of BTC.