Bitcoin Future and Macroeconomic Trends Outlook

Recently, an online interview themed "Outlook on the Future of Bitcoin and Macroeconomic Trends" has attracted widespread attention. Several industry experts conducted an in-depth discussion on significant events in the crypto market for 2024 and future development trends.

2024 Market Review

2024 is an important year for Bitcoin and the crypto market. Key events such as the Bitcoin halving, the approval of the Bitcoin ETF in the United States, and Trump's victory are driving the market up, with Bitcoin breaking the $100,000 mark. More institutions, companies, and even countries are starting to participate in the crypto space.

Experts believe that the Trump family's direct involvement in DeFi projects is a shocking shift. This could break the pattern of Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle, and the attitude of the mainstream financial market in the United States towards crypto assets has fundamentally changed. The combination of politics and crypto has come earlier and more intensely than expected, and this trend will only continue to deepen.

At the same time, the emergence of GOAT has also overturned the industry's perception of the AI track. Some believe that the first citizens of blockchain should be AI agents, not humans. In the future, there may be a vast number of AI agents utilizing blockchain technology to complete payments, DeFi, and various other functions, which is the true point of intersection between crypto and AI.

Retail Participation After Bitcoin Breaks 100,000 USD

Regarding whether retail investors find it difficult to participate in Bitcoin after $100,000, experts believe it depends on how "participation" is defined:

• If you expect to achieve hundredfold or thousandfold returns like in previous bull and bear cycles, it is indeed difficult to realize after 100,000 dollars.
• However, if Bitcoin is regarded as an investment tool similar to US stocks and gold, it remains one of the best choices.

The cryptocurrency market may still need altcoins and memes to carry the dreams of hundredfold/thousandfold returns. The market is undergoing a self-repair process, and in the future, there will still be altcoins and meme coins carrying high return dreams, but it may no longer be a model of "buying blindly to earn money," but rather moving towards specialization and alignment with the US stock market, requiring strong investment research capabilities to achieve returns beyond Bitcoin.

Institutional Investment Strategies

Currently, there are more than one institution emulating MicroStrategy's strategy. Among U.S. listed companies, there are seven or eight mining companies adopting similar convertible bond structures, trying to replicate MicroStrategy's model. It is expected that they may stop increasing their holdings at around 7-8%, as excessive concentration could affect the decentralized nature of Bitcoin, and this impact will ultimately be reflected in the price.

In the long run, Bitcoin is likely to achieve true inclusivity similar to gold. Historical data shows that about 40-45% of gold exists in the hands of the public in the form of jewelry and other items. Due to its portability and divisibility, Bitcoin may permeate the lives of ordinary people in a similar way, becoming a medium for gifts and inheritance.

Bitcoin Ecosystem Status and Future

Regarding the Bitcoin ecosystem, experts believe it is necessary to distinguish between three concepts: the Bitcoin ecosystem, BTC-Fi, and Bitcoin Layer 2. The Bitcoin ecosystem is the largest category, encompassing all projects related to Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Layer 2 is currently in a semi-falsifiable state. The development momentum in terms of EVM is not very optimistic, and it may still require waiting for BitVM 2, which could take another 1-2 years.

For BTC-Fi, experts believe it is only just beginning. If it can provide safe and stable returns, even with only 2-3 points of coin-based returns, it will attract some large investors to participate. It is recommended to explore cooperation models between on-chain projects and traditional financial institutions, generating interest through on-chain methods to pay for the interest expenses of traditional financial products.

Bitcoin during Trump's tenure

Trump will be inaugurated as President of the United States on January 20, and the market generally sees this as a significant positive. Experts predict that the following changes may be seen during his term:

• Bitcoin and other crypto assets may become strategic reserves for nations or sovereigns.
• More countries and regions may follow suit and establish special zones for more radical attempts.
• The scope of ETF issuance may expand to include spot ETFs for other crypto assets such as Solana and XRP.
• A clear plan for stablecoins as an alternative to the US dollar, as well as a new regulatory framework related to ICOs and fundraising.

2025 Prediction

Experts are cautiously optimistic about the market trends for 2025. They believe:

• The possibility of a bull-bear conversion in the first quarter is relatively small, and it may not happen until the second quarter or later.
• Many promises may gradually be fulfilled in the first 100 days after Trump took office.
• The impact of policy legislation on smart contract platforms is greater, especially in terms of regulation of stablecoins and token issuance.
• If the regulations become clearer, it will be a significant boon for smart contract platforms like ETH and Solana.

Several important structural changes may occur in 2025:

• Traditional financial institutions will become more deeply involved in the crypto market, not just limited to Bitcoin, but also including a wider range of digital assets.
• Large technology companies may incorporate cryptocurrencies into their balance sheets, and once this trend begins, it will create a chain reaction.
• Layer 2 ecosystems may experience explosive growth, especially in terms of scalability and user experience.
• The integration of DeFi and traditional finance will accelerate, creating new business models and investment opportunities.

Experts suggest that entrepreneurs should seize this opportunity, and ordinary investors should not be influenced by short-term fluctuations and get shaken out. Overall, the market has a long-term positive outlook, but the way positive factors materialize may differ from expectations.