Recently, the expectations regarding the timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have changed frequently, drawing widespread attention from the market. From the initial December to October, and now to September, the expectations for a rate cut seem to be advancing continuously. However, this frequent adjustment of expectations has raised some questions: Is such a rapid change credible? Will someone soon propose the idea of a rate cut in August?

In fact, interest rate cuts cannot be achieved solely based on market expectations or political pressure. The key lies in whether inflation is effectively controlled. If the inflation rate does not decrease significantly, any predictions about the timing of interest rate cuts may be unrealistic.

It is worth noting that the core PCE price index in the U.S. for May remains an important economic indicator, as it directly reflects the level of inflation. The trend of this indicator will largely influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve.

In this situation, investors need to remain rational and not be misled by the frequently changing market expectations. It is important to focus on actual economic data and the formal statements from Federal Reserve officials, rather than blindly following market rumors or speculative forecasts.

While interest rate cuts may have a positive impact on the market, the timing of such moves needs to be based on a solid economic foundation. Adjusting expectations too frequently may cause unnecessary fluctuations in the market, troubling investors.

Therefore, we advise investors to pay more attention to long-term economic trends and fundamental factors, rather than short-term market speculation. Only when inflation rates truly begin to decline and economic growth conditions permit, might the Federal Reserve consider lowering interest rates. Until then, overly optimistic or frequently changing expectations for rate cuts should be approached with caution.