Daily News | Long Term BTC Holders Are All Profitable, Can AI Meme Leader GOAT Lead the Market?

Crypto Daily Digest: BTC ETF once again experienced a daily outflow of over $100 million, with all long-term BTC holders making profits

According to Farside Investor data, the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of $122 million yesterday. Fidelity FBTC had a net outflow of $95.7 million, and Grayscale GBTC had a net outflow of $36.1 million.

Yesterday, the US Ethereum spot ETF experienced a small outflow of $9.5 million. Grayscale ETHE outflow was $20.1 million, Grayscale Mini Trust ETH inflow was $16.3 million, and BlackRock ETHA data has not been updated yet.

Suilend native token SEND will be launched on December 12

Suilend, the Sui eco lending protocol, announced that SEND will be launched on December 12, and the allocation checker has been launched. Early users who use Suilend before the launch of Points in May 2024 will receive a 2% SEND, with Suilend points accounting for 18% of SEND; Rootlets will receive 3.333% of SEND, divided into three airdrops of 1.111% each time.

Pantera founder: Bitcoin price may reach $740,000 by April 2028

Pantera founder Dan Morehead predicts that with the return of US President-elect Donald Trump, who supports blockchain, to the White House, Bitcoin may soar to $740,000.

Morehead stated that its Pantera Bitcoin Fund, which focuses on cryptocurrency, has achieved a historical return of 131,165% since its establishment in 2013. “Bitcoin has achieved three orders of magnitude of growth,” he said, “and it seems possible to do it again.”

According to Morehead’s theory, Bitcoin has always been on a trend line. If it continues to maintain its growth pattern, its price may reach $740,000 by April 2028. Since Pantera began investing, Bitcoin has almost doubled yearly, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 88%.

He added, “Compared to $500 trillion in financial assets, this number is not unimaginable.” At a price of $740,000, Bitcoin’s market cap will reach $15 trillion.

Glassnode: All 14 million BTC held by long-term holders entered a profitable state

According to data disclosed by Glassnode, as the price of Bitcoin rises, all 14 million BTC held by long-term holders have entered a profitable state. This has stimulated the acceleration of selling activities and led to a non-small balance decline of over 200,000 BTC since breaking through historical highs.

Long-term holders begin to take profits when prices are strong and demand is sufficient to absorb them. ETFs play a key role in this process, absorbing over 90% of the selling pressure from long-term holders. However, as unrealized profits reach more extreme levels, long-term holders are expected to accelerate their selling, which has exceeded the inflow of ETFs in the short term.

However, due to the large amount of Bitcoin still held by long-term holders, many long-term holders may wait for higher prices before releasing more Bitcoin back into circulation.

Market Trends: Layer 1 collectively rose, GOAT rebounded significantly

Market Hotspots

AI meme leader GOAT rebounded significantly, with an intraday amplitude of nearly 30%. GOAT’s current circulating market cap is $830 million, ranking 151st in the entire market; AI remains one of the most important narratives in this round of market trends, and compared to leading projects in the AI field such as NEAR and FET, GOAT still has a lot of space for improvement;

Layer1 public chains such as INR, FTM, ALGO, and SEI collectively rose. INR is a well-established public chain, and although it does not have much eco on the chain, it has strong funds behind it, even creating a 50-fold increase in bear markets; SEI is a new public chain in this round of market trend, with a circulating market cap of $2.9 billion, ranking 47th in the entire market;

Ethereum staking protocol leader EIGEN rose 10% in 24 hours. EIGEN has a low liquidity rate with a market cap of only $640 million, but its FDV is as high as $5.7 billion. If ETH ETFs allow staking on a policy level in the future, funds may flood into the re-staking protocols.

Mainstream Coins

BTC is still trading narrowly around $93,000, with most BTC spot ETFs experiencing net outflows except for BlackRock;

The strength of ETH did not last long, and the decline in the market drove ETH back to around $3,350. ETH still needs to wait for BTC to break through the market psychological barrier of $100,000 before it can have independent market performance;

Altcoins hit the bottom and then rebounded, while early strong tokens such as GOAT and MOODENG rebounded.

Macro news: US stocks collectively closed higher, with expectations of a Fed rate cut rising to 62.8%

The three major indexes of the US stock market collectively closed higher, with the S&P 500 index rising 0.57% to 6,021.63 points; The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.28% to 44,860.31 points; The Nasdaq index rose 0.63% to close at 19,174.30 points. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is 4.30%, while the 2-year Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to the Federal Reserve policy rate, is 4.21%.

The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on November 6 to 7. According to the meeting minutes, it is predicted that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in December. The meeting minutes showed that the Federal Reserve decided to lower its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at its November meeting, bringing its benchmark funds rate to the range of 4.5% to 4.75%. The Fed also stated that further adjustments to its monetary policy stance would help maintain the economy’s and labor market’s strength while continuing to push inflation further down. According to CME’s “FedWatch,” the probability of the Fed keeping current interest rates unchanged until December is 37.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 62.8%.