Encuesta de Reuters: cerca del 60% de los economistas estiman que Japón subirá las tasas de interés nuevamente en julio de este año.

Reuters released the latest survey results on Thursday, showing that most economists expect that the Central Bank of Japan will only raise interest rates once this year, most likely to 0.75% in the third quarter. Of the 39 analysts who predicted the specific month of the rate hike, 59% expect it to happen in July. In January this year, the Bank of Japan raised short-term interest rates from 0.25% to 0.50%, the highest level since the global financial crisis of 2008. This move reflects the belief of the Bank of Japan that Japan is moving towards sustainable inflation targeting of 2%. Survey: Bank of Japan may raise interest rates only once this year According to a Reuters survey released on Thursday, most economists expect that the Bank of Japan will only raise interest rates once this year, most likely to 0.75% in the third quarter. At the same time, analysts expect the median wage increase in wage negotiations this year to be 5%, close to last year's nearly 33-year high, which is a positive signal for the Bank of Japan and may prompt it to continue raising interest rates. Amid a global trend of central banks cutting interest rates to boost the economy and respond to the uncertainties of U.S. President Trump's tariff policies, the Bank of Japan is one of the few central banks pushing for rate hikes, despite Japan's interest rates remaining at extremely low levels. In a survey conducted from the 12th to the 18th, all 61 economists surveyed predicted that the Bank of Japan would maintain interest rates at the March 18th to 19th meeting, with only a few (19 out of 61) believing that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates by 25 basis points at least once in the next quarter, bringing the interest rate to 0.75%. Over 65% of respondents (38 out of 58) predict that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates to 0.75% in July or September. The yen derivatives market expects that interest rates may rise by another 35 basis points by the end of the year, indicating a 69% probability of two 25 basis point rate hikes. Junki Iwahashi, senior economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, stated that the Bank of Japan needs to confirm the extent of wage increases in wage negotiations this year and the impact on small and medium-sized enterprises, as well as review the effects of the January rate hike. 59% of economists estimate a rate hike in July Among the 39 analysts who predicted the specific month of the rate hike, 59% (23 analysts) chose July, 15% (6 analysts) chose June, while 5 analysts each chose April and September. The median prediction for the interest rate at the end of the year is 0.75%, and by the end of March 2026, it is 1.00%. Masato Koike, senior economist at Sompo Institute Plus, pointed out that July seems to be a possible time for the next rate hike, as it has been six months since the January meeting and is also after the Japanese Senate elections. Will the yen arbitrage unwinding phenomenon reappear? It is worth noting that if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates again this year, the market is concerned that the yen arbitrage unwinding phenomenon that caused a global stock market and encryption currency market crash on August 5th last year may recur, putting pressure on risk assets such as BTC. After the Bank of Japan raised interest rates at the end of July last year, as the interest rate differential between the yen and the United States and Europe began to narrow, the market triggered a wave of yen arbitrage trade unwinding, leading to turmoil in the global financial markets. On August 5th last year, BTC once fell to $48,900, the S&P 500 index plummeted by 3%, marking the largest single-day drop since September 2022, and the Nikkei 225 index fell by over 12%. However, Marcin Kazmierczak, Chief Operating Officer of RedStone Oracles, recently analyzed that the impact may be gradual rather than immediate, depending on how central bank decision-makers balance domestic inflation targets and global market stability. Related reports: Yen continues to depreciate for six days! Analysts warn: Bank of Japan may be forced to raise interest rates tomorrow, 155 is the critical point The Japanese spring struggle is here! Unions call for a 6-7% wage increase, inflation fears may accelerate, and 90% of experts predict a rate hike this week China's bond yields hit a new low! Bloomberg warns: may trigger a deflationary spiral following Japan's footsteps 'Reuters survey: Nearly 60% of economists predict Japan will raise interest rates again in July' was first published on BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media.