China slowly wakes up, while the world stops its pump.

After a weary week, Chinese investors are slowly waking up to find that the gold, US stock market, and other markets have halted their frenzied pace, with some changes in the market's trading logic.
On Friday, the closing of the global markets brought some surprises:
- The U.S. stock market fell across the board. Trump's statement that he "did not want to use tariffs against China" boosted the Chinese stock market but failed to boost the U.S. stock market tonight. Profit-taking appeared in the market before the arrival of next week (especially on February 1st).
- Gold stopped pumping just $2 away from its all-time high and started to turn down.
- The US dollar and crude oil were the biggest losers this week. The US dollar fell 0.63% on Friday, with a cumulative decline of 1.77% this week (equivalent to a stock market decline of about 4%); oil prices pumped slightly, but the cumulative decline this week reached 4%;
- US Treasury bonds seem to be out of sync with the world, with little movement in Treasury yields this week.
Next week will enter the real showdown moment:
First, for the US stock market and the US dollar, many good news have been digested - this week the market reacted spontaneously under the influence of the 'market sentiment created by Trump', and the market will really calm down next week. Simply put, the market evaluated this week purely on whether tariff remarks exceeded expectations, while next week the market will evaluate whether tariffs will have an impact on inflation.
Second, regarding the news about tariffs, it will continue to fluctuate. In the final few hours before the close on Friday, the U.S. Trade Representative's Office issued a statement claiming to evaluate China's compliance with the economic and trade agreement. After the statement was released, the U.S. stock market experienced a decline. As February 1 approaches, rationality will return to the market.
Third, the Fed will hold a meeting, and it is expected that the central bank will announce to maintain the interest rate unchanged, which will be the first "pause in interest rate cuts" since this round of rate cuts. Whether it will reveal the next interest rate cut signal and its view on inflation will be the most concerning to the market.
According to our calculations, the volatility of global markets next week will be much greater than this week, possibly twice as much as this week.

The wind and waves are increasing, be prepared.