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A shares rise slightly, leaving the world with a hint of suspense
Most Asian stock markets fell, with the Chinese market regrouping to face next week's risk events.
1. The Chinese stock market rose moderately, not boosted by too much economic data - the year-on-year GDP in the fourth quarter increased significantly from 4.6% to 5.4%, resulting in a full-year growth rate of 5% (thanks to more coordinated and powerful policy easing measures). However, looking closely at this data, the growth rate of fixed asset investment remains sluggish, leading analysts to predict a possible slowdown in future growth rates. The focus of the debate will be whether the stimulus from subsequent easing policies can outweigh the potential resistance from tariffs. If a positive answer can be obtained, then the market will rise without fear of tariffs.
2. Unfortunately, the renminbi is not linked to the stock market's rise, making it difficult to determine the sustainability of the stock market's gains. Offshore renminbi has shown little volatility for four consecutive trading days, and it is expected to become more volatile after January 20. In comparison, the renminbi is currently considered an objective indicator of investor risk appetite for the Chinese market.
3. The US dollar and US bond yields rebounded slightly, but no one dares to be bearish at the moment. Some investment banks even forecast that the yield on 10-year US bonds could rise to as high as 6% this year.
4. The market seems to have lost interest in the Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Warl last night said that there could still be three to four interest rate cuts this year, at a faster pace than market expectations, and even a rate cut in March cannot be completely ruled out - but the market is not moved, and there is no impressive trend, with the US stock market even closing with a decline.
The global market trends today are not meaningful as they are more of a position adjustment before Trump takes office - the final market trends depend on what Trump says and does. Whether it goes up or down today, it will be offset by a single word from Trump.
The suspense is left until next week