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Macroeconomic liquidity improvement, crypto market risk accumulation, ETH ecosystem under follow.
1. Macroeconomic Liquidity
The liquidity of the currency shows signs of improvement. Federal Reserve officials have expressed concerns about the latest signs of weakness in the labor market, which has strengthened market expectations for a possible rate cut in September. Although U.S. stocks continued to rise in August, the key supporting force of retail buying is weakening, and risks are accumulating in September. The cryptocurrency market is weakening along with U.S. stocks.
2. Market Overview
Top 300 tokens market cap fluctuation:
This week, Bitcoin fell, altcoins generally declined, and small-cap cryptocurrencies performed actively. The market is mainly focused on the Ethereum ecosystem.
|-------|-------|-------|-----| | Top 5 Increase | Increase | Top 5 Decrease | Decrease | | MYX | 1600% | FRAX | 20% | | M | 60% | PI | 20% | | REKT | 30% | WEMIX | 20% | | PUMP | 20% | SUPER | 20% | | TOSHI | 20% | MOG | 20% |
3. On-chain data
After the price of Bitcoin reached a new high, the market trend has become unclear. The profitability of short-term holders has declined, and the capital flow of ETFs has turned negative, marking the largest outflow in over a year. The market financing rate has dropped, indicating weakened confidence in short-term price increases.
The supply of stablecoins maintains a growth of 1%.
Institutional funds have seen a net outflow for the first time in 15 weeks, while Ethereum continues to attract capital inflows.
The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profit situation. A value greater than 6 indicates the top range, while a value less than 2 indicates the bottom range. The current MVRV is showing a downward trend.
Four, Futures Market
Futures funding rate: This week's rate is 0.01%, which is at a normal level. When the rate is between 0.05-0.1%, it indicates that the long leverage is high, which may signify a short-term market top; when the rate is between -0.1-0%, it indicates that the short leverage is high, which may signify a short-term market bottom.
Futures Open Interest: This week, the open interest for Bitcoin has started to decline, indicating that the main capital is withdrawing from the market.
Futures Long-Short Ratio: Currently at 1.1, reflecting neutral market sentiment. Retail sentiment is usually viewed as a contrarian indicator, with below 0.7 indicating fear and above 2.0 indicating greed. It is important to note that the Long-Short Ratio data can be quite volatile, reducing its reference significance.
Five, Spot Market
This week, Bitcoin performed weakly, with its market share dropping by 5% to 61%. Looking back at July, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies rose by 13%, primarily due to increased institutional demand. Altcoins such as Ethereum performed well, with Ethereum spot ETFs recording a record net inflow for 20 consecutive days. The U.S. legislative body passed a bill aimed at regulating stablecoins, which has been signed into law by the President.