Bitcoin Halving One Year Anniversary: Market Dynamics Shift, Mature and Stable Trends Emerge

Bitcoin has been a year since the last Halving, and this cycle has shown a distinctly different trend compared to the past. Unlike the explosive growth following previous Halvings, this round has seen a more moderate increase in Bitcoin, rising only 31%, while the previous cycle saw a staggering increase of 436% during the same period.

At the same time, long-term holder indicators such as the MVRV ratio show a significant decline in unrealized profits, indicating that the market is maturing and upward potential is being compressed. These changes suggest that Bitcoin may be entering a new era characterized by gradual growth rather than parabolic peaks, driven more by institutional investments.

Characteristics of this cycle: Previous rise, consolidation and pullback

The current cycle is significantly different from previous years, which may indicate that the market's reaction to the Halving event is changing. In earlier cycles, Bitcoin typically experienced a strong rally after the Halving, accompanied by strong upward momentum and parabolic price movements, mainly due to retail enthusiasm and speculative demand.

However, this cycle has taken a different path. The price did not accelerate after the Halving, but started to soar early in October and December 2024, followed by a consolidation in January 2025 and a pullback in late February. This early rising behavior is sharply different from historical patterns.

Factors contributing to this shift include: Bitcoin is no longer just a retail-driven speculative asset, but is increasingly seen as a mature financial instrument; higher participation from institutional investors; macroeconomic pressures and changes in market structure leading to more cautious and complex market responses.

The weakening intensity of each cycle is also a clear sign of this evolution. As Bitcoin's market value grows, the explosive price increases seen in the early years are becoming increasingly difficult to replicate. For example, in the cycle from 2020 to 2024, Bitcoin rose by 436% one year after the Halving, while the increase during the same period in this cycle was only 31%.

This transition may indicate that Bitcoin is entering a new phase characterized by reduced volatility and more stable long-term growth. Halving may no longer be the main driving force, as factors such as interest rates, liquidity, and institutional funding are playing a larger role.

Nevertheless, in previous cycles, there have also been consolidation and pullback phases before the recovery of the upward trend. Although this phase may feel slow or lack excitement, it may represent a healthy adjustment before the next round of increase.

This cycle may continue to deviate from historical patterns, and a dramatic top bubble burst may not occur. Instead, a more sustained and structurally solid upward trend may present itself, driven more by fundamentals rather than speculation.

Long-term Holder MVRV Ratio: Market Maturity Signal

The market value of Long-Term Holders (LTH) and the MVRV ratio have always been reliable indicators of unrealized profits, showing the profits that long-term investors have gained before they start to sell. However, over time, this value is declining.

From 2016 to 2020, the LTH MVRV ratio peaked at 35.8, indicating huge unrealized profits and a clear top formation. In the 2020 to 2024 cycle, this peak sharply declined to 12.2, despite the fact that Bitcoin reached an all-time high at that time.

So far in this cycle, the highest LTH MVRV ratio is only 4.35, a significant decrease. This indicates that the profits gained by long-term holders are far lower than in previous cycles, despite the substantial increase in Bitcoin prices. The profit multiples for each cycle are declining, showing that the explosive upward potential of Bitcoin is being compressed, and the market is becoming more mature.

This is not a coincidence. As the market matures, explosive returns are naturally harder to achieve. The era of extreme, cycle-driven profit multiples may be fading, replaced by more moderate or stable growth. The continuously growing market size means that exponentially more capital is needed to significantly drive prices up.

However, this does not confirm that the current cycle has already peaked. Previous cycles typically include long periods of consolidation or minor pullbacks before reaching new highs. As the role of institutional investors becomes increasingly important, the accumulation phase may last longer. Therefore, the sell-off of peak profits may not be as sudden as in earlier cycles.

If the MVRV ratio peak decline trend continues, it may strengthen the view that Bitcoin is transitioning from a frenzy, cyclical surge to a more moderate but structured growth pattern. The most extreme price increases may be over, especially for investors who entered the market in the later stages of the cycle.