$15 billion Bitcoin options expire today, will this trigger volatility in the crypto assets market?

Bitcoin (BTC) has shown strong performance recently, rebounding nearly 10% in less than a week, successfully breaking through the key resistance area of $106,000 to $108,000, even bypassing the $103,000 to $105,000 hurdle from May. This strong upward momentum has led bulls to set their sights on the next important psychological level—$110,000. However, the road to new highs is not without its challenges. Today (27), $15 billion worth of Bitcoin options are set to expire, with a large concentration of open contracts in the high gamma region, which undoubtedly adds uncertainty to the market. Will this massive options expiration event shake up the crypto assets market, or will it establish a bullish tone for Bitcoin's performance in the third quarter?

1. Bitcoin Faces Upside Pressure: Bullish Sentiment Dominates the Market

(Source: Deribit)

As of now, the open contracts for Bitcoin options show a clear bullish trend. Traders hold a total of 79,630 call option contracts, while put option contracts amount to 59,770, maintaining a put/call ratio of 0.75. This is a fairly clear signal indicating that the market generally leans towards bullishness, even though the trading volume is not overly large.

It is worth noting that the total open interest reached 139,400 contracts, making it one of the largest expiring contracts in recent months. With such a massive open interest, the key pressure point (maximum drop) is at $102,000, while the spot price of Bitcoin has risen by $5,500. This huge price discrepancy has put many traders in short gamma positions, as most bullish options are now in-the-money.

2. The Hedging Behavior of Market Makers: Gamma Squeeze Effect

In this situation, market makers usually perform buying operations through the spot or futures market to hedge risks. This hedging behavior injects mechanical buying pressure into Bitcoin before the options expiration.

In short, if the price of Bitcoin continues to rise, it could trigger what is known as a "Gamma Squeeze." When traders are forced to actively repurchase Bitcoin to maintain their Delta Neutral positions, this repurchase behavior will further accelerate the price momentum of Bitcoin, creating a positive feedback loop. Therefore, structurally, there are indeed bullish signals for Bitcoin before the options expiration. If the price can successfully break through the resistance level, it is likely to quickly pump to the 110,000 USD mark.

3. Liquidity Transfer After Expiration: Market Restructuring

(Source: Deribit)

As mentioned earlier, the current options structure has driven strong short-term buying pressure for Bitcoin, resulting in a nearly 10% price increase this week, and consolidating below the key resistance level of $110,000. However, the real story will officially unfold after the options expiration. Once the $15 billion in options are settled, all related hedging positions will disappear, and the market will suddenly open the door for new positions.

Interestingly, this repositioning of the market may have quietly begun. The open interest in Bitcoin options has just reached a historical high of 51.1 billion USD, with the Deribit platform accounting for as much as 80% of the volume.

4. New Wave of Bullish Bets: Laying the Foundation for a Breakthrough in Q3

Further enhancing the bullish momentum is that Deribit's 24-hour put/call ratio has dropped to 0.36, which clearly favors new bullish bets, indicating that over 186,421 new bullish contracts have been traded in the market.

This is a very important signal. As old positions are closed, although a wave of short-term volatility may be triggered due to forced selling or profit-taking, the large influx of new long positions is likely to absorb this liquidity shock. If this dynamic can continue, it will lay a solid foundation for Bitcoin to achieve its next breakthrough as it enters the third quarter.

Conclusion:

Today, the expiration of 15 billion USD Bitcoin options is undoubtedly the focus of market attention. Although there may be fluctuations in the short term due to the unwinding of hedged positions, looking at the current market structure and new bullish bets, Bitcoin seems to be gaining strength, preparing to face the challenges of the third quarter. This massive options expiration event may not trigger severe market turmoil, but rather could become a catalyst for Bitcoin to reach new milestones. Investors should closely monitor market dynamics and carefully assess risks.