Historical law: alt season will not be absent, but it needs time to settle.

Looking back at the cyclical patterns of the cryptocurrency market, altcoin trends often explode in the later stages of a Bitcoin bull market. For example, after Bitcoin broke through $20,000 in 2017, Ethereum surged by 2700%; after Bitcoin reached a new high of $69,000 in 2021, tokens like Solana (SOL) and Polygon (MATIC) saw increases of over 2000%. This "Bitcoin leading the charge - altcoins taking over" model stems from the effects of capital rotation. When Bitcoin's price stabilizes, investors tend to shift profits toward the higher-risk, high-potential altcoin market.
But this cycle shows the characteristic of "slow burning".
After Bitcoin completed its breakthrough in 2024, the market focus did not quickly shift to altcoins, but rather continued to concentrate on Bitcoin. As of May 2025, Bitcoin's market capitalization ratio still reached 63%-64%, far higher than the 45% in the same period of 2021. This indicates that we are still in the "Bitcoin one-sided bull market" phase, and capital has not yet overflowed on a large scale to altcoins.
The three core contradictions in the current market are suppressing the altcoin market.
Risk aversion sentiment dominates
The Federal Reserve maintains a high interest rate policy, coupled with geopolitical risks, leading institutional funds to prioritize the allocation of assets like Bitcoin, referred to as "digital gold." In the first quarter of 2025, Bitcoin holdings increased by 23%, while altcoin funds experienced a net outflow of 18%.

The process of compliance is slow.
The scrutiny of small and medium-sized market cap tokens by the US SEC has increased by 45% compared to the same period last year. Leading projects like Solana and Cardano have yet to receive ETF approval, which has dampened institutional interest. In contrast, the Bitcoin ETF has attracted over $30 billion in funds, creating a siphoning effect.
The narrative of the track lacks breakthroughs.
The market hotspots in 2024 will focus on the Bitcoin ecosystem (such as inscription and Layer 2) and the concept of AI, while there will be no disruptive innovation in traditional altcoin tracks such as DeFi and GameFi. The lack of a strong consensus narrative makes it difficult for funds to form synergies.