Jin10 Data, July 3 - According to The Wall Street Journal, on Wednesday evening local time, Republican leaders in the U.S. House of Representatives faced setbacks on Trump's tax and spending bill, as the party's slim majority once again created a dramatic moment on Capitol Hill at the last minute. Four Republican lawmakers - Keith Self, Victoria Spartz, Andrew Clyde, and Brian Fitzpatrick - voted against the procedural "rule" vote alongside Democrats, temporarily blocking the Republicans from moving into the final passage phase. The procedural voting lasted until late at night, continuing for more than 7 hours, reportedly the longest voting period in House history.

U.S. stocks fell and oil prices rose as the U.S. expanded its military presence in the Middle East, with little hope of a quick resolution to the Israeli-Iranian conflict. Trump warned that he was losing patience with Iran, called for Iran's unconditional surrender and said he would not target Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Ali Khamenei "for the time being." Trump said earlier after signing the G7 statement calling for peace and stability in the Middle East that he was working to "truly end" the conflict.

According to data from Carson Group LLC analysts, historical trends show that even if U.S. stocks fall by 15% or more in a given year, the likelihood of ultimately recording a pump by the end of the year is very low, with only 3 successful instances. The Federal Reserve (FED) may not intervene to support the market, as they are concerned about inflation issues. This means that the current stock market may face challenges.

On March 28, Jin10 reported that U.S. President Trump announced on social media on the afternoon of the 27th that he has withdrawn the nomination of Alice Stephonik as the U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations. Stephonik is a Congresswoman from New York. Trump said he has asked Stephonik to remain in Congress, where she will rejoin the House leadership team. Trump stated that due to the very slim Republican majority in Congress, he does not want to risk having someone else run for the House seat that will be vacated if Stephonik steps down.

The Japanese Trade Union Confederation announced that the union had won an average wage increase of 5.46%, higher than last year, and released it before the Central Bank meeting, causing the yen to fall in the short term. The strong 'spring struggle' reflects Japan's gradual recovery. Surveys show that the Central Bank will maintain its policy, and the possibility of a rate hike is slim, with the next rate hike expected to take place in the summer.

Odaily Planet Daily News Analysis believes that due to the backlog of 10,000 cases and lack of political support, the chances of SBF being pardoned are slim, while Darknet Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht's pardon is related to Trump's campaign promise. (Cointelegraph)

In January, the CPI in France increased by 1.8% year-on-year, unchanged from December last year, with service industry inflation slowing down and energy prices rebounding, lower than the 2% threshold set by the European Central Bank. The economy is still at a standstill, and hopes for an economic rebound in the new year are slim.

Odaily Planet News Non-fungible Token Market Magic Eden's Chief Legal Advisor Joe Doll said in an interview that David Sacks, recently appointed as the 'AI and encryption czar', has only two years before the 2026 US midterm elections to promote policies supporting the cryptocurrency industry. According to Doll, the threat of a government deadlock could stifle regulation, and the current government must push for policies supporting Cryptocurrency while still controlling both houses of Congress. Doll said, “The majority in the House is very slim and is likely to reverse because it almost always does. So there may be a divided government that locks and freezes things for two years. So we have 24

Bitcoinrise to $100,000 could help El Salvador repay $80 million in loans to the International Monetary Fund, but the possibility is slim due to the assumption that BTC is not collateralized and non-IMF debts are ignored.

Odaily Planet Daily News Reuters/Ipsos' latest poll shows that Democratic Vice President Harris leads Republican former President Trump by a slim margin of 46% to 43%. This six-day opinion poll ended on Monday, and Harris' lead is almost the same as the Reuters/Ipsos poll a week ago (45% to 42%), which further proves that it is only a few days away from November 5.

According to Jessica Hynes, head of the Fitch Ratings economic team, the decision of the UK Central Bank to maintain the Benchmark Interest Rate at 5% is not surprising, given that Bank of England Governor Bailey stated after the interest rate cut in August that he does not want the rate to be lowered too far too quickly. However, in a report, she wrote that the Central Bank's monetary policy statement suggests that further easing measures are most likely to be introduced in November. She added that the focus is on gradualism, implying that the likelihood of the Bank of England following the Fed's rate cut of more than 25 basis points is slim.

The market's expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed has suddenly heated up, but a report released by ING predicts a slim majority of a 25 basis point rate cut at next week's FOMC meeting, and believes that the Fed is unlikely to break the trend of dollar depreciation, and the market will continue to follow suit.

The European Central Bank may lower interest rates at the October meeting, but the chance is slim, only considering it when the economy suffers heavy damage and significantly falls below expectations. Service prices continue to pump, inflation still exists, but the economic rise is slower than expected. The gradual drop in interest rates is reasonable, and the European Central Bank has taken action twice this year.

The Bank of England maintains the original interest rate unchanged, and the basic inflation factors still do not support the confidence of interest rate cuts; Federal Reserve officials' speeches continue to suppress expectations of easing, and the US dollar may continue to be supported by buying.

(1) Oil futures climbed on Monday as Saudi Arabia raised the price of June crude in most parts of the country and the prospects for a ceasefire protocol in Gaza seemed slim, renewing concerns that the Israeli-Hamas conflict could still expand in this important oil-producing region. (2) Brent crude futures pumped 0.5% to $83.40 a barrel; US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) CLc1 pumped 0.6% at $78.57 a barrel. (3) Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price (OSP) of crude oil sold to Asia, Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean in June, indicating that demand is expected to be strong this summer. (4) In China, the world's largest crude oil importer, its service sector activity continued to expand for the 16th consecutive month, while the rise of new orders accelerated and business confidence rise steadily, boosting hopes for a sustained economic recovery. (5) As the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza proceeded, the geopolitical risk premium on oil prices also retreated. However, Hamas reiterated its demand on Sunday to end the war in exchange for the release of the hostages, a demand that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flatly refused, and the prospects for a ceasefire in Gaza seem slim. (6) IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said: "Protocol that Israel wants to continue to expand its operations to Rafah, threatens to undermine a potential ceasefire and reignite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that appear to be easing." ” (7) He added that with most of the oil longing positions already shorter last week, there seems to be a possibility of WTI prices rebounding to $80 at the start of the week. (8) For

Slim Daddy, an analyst at IntoTheBlock, said that the average Money Laundering fall of ETH on April 27 was below $2.6 per transaction, coin.com reported. According to IntoTheBlock, the last time we saw such a fee drop was in October 2023, when it was as low as $1.78. A decrease in the average transaction fee usually indicates that the Blockchain network is dropping more efficiently processing transactions and that network congestion is decreasing.

Adam Button, an analyst at the financial website Forexlive, said that a report is circulating in the market from Financial Service company Matrixport, which says the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will refuse to approve BitcoinSpot ETFs this month, by its head of research, Marcus Tillen. The report was apparently speculation, but it was presented as if it were a true report and that the analysis had some basis. The basis for the report is that the SEC's approval process is "Democratic-led" and that "SEC Chairman Gensler does not accept Crypto Assets" and therefore expects him to approve Spot ETFs "very slim." Button sees Bitcoin ETFs as a "sell fact" trade, but as we continue to await approval, there is an opportunity to "buy in rumors" in this decline. But any market that Fluctuation of 6% as a result of such reporting is just one step away from a 20% decline.

(1) Stock market experts surveyed expect most of the world's major stock indexes to rise modestly in the coming year and close 2024 below record highs, with a slim majority expecting the stock market to hit new highs in the next six months. (2) Stock market movements are largely dependent on interest rate expectations, and most central banks have now ended their aggressive rate hike cycles. (3) Traders and analysts mostly believe that the Fed will cut interest rates by the middle of next year, but this outcome is far from certain and does not clearly align with the policy statements of senior Fed officials. (4) A slim majority of respondents (46 out of 82) believe that most major stock indices will reach new highs by the middle of next year, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is one of the reasons for this view. (5) However, based on a broader survey of more than 120 stock market experts conducted Nov. 9-22, only a handful of the 15 major stock indices are expected to be at record highs by the end of 2024. (6) Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Barclays' global head of research, noted: "After advising investors to hold cash instead of equities and bonds for two consecutive quarters, we now expect equities to deliver high-single-digit returns in 2024 and outperform core fixed income. Yes, we expect both real and nominal growth to slow down next year... But downside risks to the global economy have been greatly reduced. We think equities will benefit from a fairly benign bottom in this business cycle. ”

Commerzbank FX analyst Antje Praefcke said in a note that the dollar has little hope of rising after the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data on Friday, but it should remain stable this week due to the lack of important data. "Based on monetary policy, the upside potential of the dollar has been more or less exhausted, and the market expects rate cuts to be faster than the Fed's dot plot indicates." Weaker US inflation and economic data will put more pressure on the dollar, while the prospect of another rate hike in December is currently "slim".

⑥ After raising interest rates 11 times since early 2022, the Fed's favored measure of inflation has fallen sharply from a peak of 7.0%. But it is not expected to drop to the 2% target until at least 2025, the survey showed. ⑦Increased confidence that the economy may avoid a severe recession has prompted growing expectations that interest rates will remain high for a longer period of time, leading to turmoil in the bond market in recent days. The benchmark 10-year yield on U.S. Treasuries is now just a few basis points below the October cycle high. ⑧23 respondents indicated that there will be one more interest rate hike this year, and two said that there will be two interest rate hikes, with the interest rate range reaching 5.75-6.00%. Of the 95 economists who provided forecasts to mid-2024, most said at least one rate cut would be by then, but were inconclusive on the timing of the first. ⑨ Among them, a slight majority of 48 people said that the Fed will not cut interest rates by the end of March, and 45 people (47%) said that the Fed will cut interest rates for the first time in the first quarter. The other two forecast a rate cut in the fourth quarter of this year. Another 33 respondents, or about 35 percent, predicted the Fed would cut rates for the first time in the second quarter, and 79 of 95 respondents, or 83 percent, expected at least one rate cut by mid-2024

① The vast majority of economists polled by Reuters said the Fed's rate hike cycle may be over, with a slim majority now expecting the Fed to wait until at least the end of March before cutting rates. ②As the U.S. economy faces almost all negative forecasts, the unemployment rate is at a low point in more than 50 years, and the median probability of a recession within a year has dropped to 40%, the first time since September 2022 that it has fallen below 50%. ③Among the 110 economists surveyed from August 14 to 18, 99 economists (90%) said that the Fed will maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 5.25-5.50% at the September meeting, which is in line with the Market pricing remains consistent. An 80% majority does not expect further rate hikes this year. ④ This is in stark contrast to the minutes of the Fed's latest meeting, which showed policymakers were divided on the need to raise interest rates again. After raising interest rates by 25 basis points last month, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell left the option open on whether to raise rates or pause them at the September meeting. ⑤ Sal Guatieri, senior economist at Montreal Capital Markets, pointed out: "Chairman Powell said that the interest rate decision will depend on upcoming economic growth and inflation data, and we suspect that the signs of slowing shown by these data will be enough to prevent further interest rate hikes. However, given the expected long path for inflation to return to target, lowering the current range for the fed funds rate will not begin until around June 2024."

Maybank believes that the New Zealand dollar is unlikely to get much of a boost in the near term as risk sentiment looks fragile and the chances of a rate hike by the RBNZ remain slim. Strategist Shaun Lim said that it will be observed whether the New Zealand dollar can break through the psychological barrier of 0.60 against the US dollar. 0.6170 is another key level around the 50-day moving average. In the medium term, there are some underlying positives for the New Zealand economy, but some improvement in external demand and an accelerated recovery in tourism may have to be seen. Overall, risks for NZD/USD are skewed to the downside, although the latest RBNZ data suggests that NZD may be more resilient against other currencies.