Harvard Economist Admits Mistake: Prediction of Bitcoin 100 USD Completely Failed

Kenneth Rogoff, an economist at Harvard University, who once claimed in 2018 that Bitcoin was more likely to fall to 100 dollars than rise to 100,000 dollars, has returned. He indirectly acknowledged that he was wrong and clarified the reasons why his prediction failed. Harvard Economist Speaks Out on Wrong Predictions About Bitcoin In a post on X, Rogoff self-identified as a Harvard economist who stated that Bitcoin has a better chance of being worth $100 than $100,000. He then continued to comment on what he missed when making this prediction. First, the economist said that he was too optimistic about the U.S. recognizing the importance of properly managing cryptocurrencies.

Rogoff, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), pointed out that the Donald Trump administration mismanaged Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. He questioned why policymakers would want to facilitate tax evasion and illegal activities, which may relate to regulations like the GENIUS Act, which has brought regulatory clarity. What is noteworthy is that one of the reasons the Harvard economist predicts that Bitcoin is likely to rise to $100 is based on his belief that government regulation will cause prices to fall. He made this prediction when BTC was trading at around $11,000. Rogoff at that time stated that this leading cryptocurrency needs to be globally regulated to prevent its use for money laundering purposes. The former IMF director believes that if this regulation eliminates the possibility of money laundering and tax evasion, then the practical application of Bitcoin in transactions will be very small. Therefore, he believes that there will be no demand for BTC, which will cause its price to fall instead of rise. However, that did not happen as government regulations only increased the demand for Bitcoin. This leading cryptocurrency has risen to $100,000, a price that Rogoff predicted would not be reached, for the first time last year after Donald Trump's victory. Meanwhile, BTC has reached new heights thanks to regulatory clarity, including the rise to an all-time high (ATH) just before the GENIUS Act was passed last month. Other Reasons for Missed Predictions The Harvard economist also stated that he does not believe Bitcoin will compete with fiat currency to become the preferred medium of exchange in the global underground economy worth $20 trillion. He added that this demand sets a floor price for this currency. In addition to being a popular trading medium, BTC is also famous as a store of value, creating demand for this coin in the traditional financial investment community (TradFi). These investors have primarily accessed Bitcoin through ETF funds. Interestingly, Harvard recently announced a $117 million investment in BlackRock's BTC ETF. Finally, Rogoff stated that he does not foresee a situation where regulators, especially high-level regulators, could brazenly hold hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars in cryptocurrency without facing any consequences, considering the "brazen conflict of interest."