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Avalanche (AVAX) is drawing attention from analysts and the investment community after confirming a double bottom pattern on the weekly chart — a highly reliable reversal pattern in technical analysis. Despite a slight 1% adjustment on the day, AVAX is still holding above the psychological support level of 23 dollars, indicating that buying pressure is still strongly present in the context of a generally fragmented market.

Technical Setup with a Bullish Mindset

On the weekly timeframe, Avalanche (AVAX) has established a clear double bottom pattern around the support area of 20 USD — a classic technical signal that often precedes a strong trend reversal. This structure reflects the effective defensive efforts of buyers throughout the prolonged accumulation phase, and is currently approaching the confirmation stage.

Some notable features of this model include:

Technical indicators are currently supporting this positive trend. On the weekly chart, the RSI has crossed above the 50 level, reflecting a shift in momentum from a neutral state to a bullish trend. At the same time, the MACD has also crossed above the signal line, signaling a strong reversal and adding reliability to the technical pattern that is forming.

In the context of the market seeking confirmation signals for trends, this could be one of the most important technical opportunities for AVAX this quarter.

Fundamental Factors: ETF Rumors and Breakthrough from the Octane Upgrade

The driving force behind the increase of AVAX comes not only from technical signals but is also reinforced by strategic and long-term fundamental developments.

One of the recent factors drawing attention is the rumor about the potential launch of an ETF fund based on Avalanche — information that is spreading strongly within the investment community, especially after some asset management organizations began to include AVAX in their analytical watchlists. If confirmed, this could create a significant turning point, similar to the wave of interest in Ethereum ETFs, and more importantly, it would open the door for institutional capital to flow into the Avalanche ecosystem – which is growing rapidly but has not yet been fully priced by the market.

In addition, the Octane upgrade – one of the notable recent technology updates – has helped reduce transaction costs on the C-Chain network by up to 43%, enhancing the overall system performance. This is a step that is not only technical but also strategically significant: it helps Avalanche become more attractive to decentralized application developers (dApp) and DeFi users — groups that are extremely sensitive to costs and transaction speeds. With this move, Avalanche is gradually strengthening its position as one of the most watched Layer 1 platforms today.

The Expansion of DeFi: TVL Exceeds $1.5 Billion

The DeFi ecosystem on Avalanche is experiencing an impressive recovery, marking a stage of sustainable growth following a period of adjustment. The total value locked (TVL) on the network has now surpassed the milestone of $1.5 billion, nearly doubling compared to the same period last year – a figure that not only reflects the return of capital but also demonstrates the growing confidence from the investor community.

TVL of Avalanche | Source: DefillamaPlaying a backbone role in this recovery wave are leading DeFi protocols such as Benqi (lending), Trader Joe (DEX), and Struct Finance (yield management tools). These platforms have been and are continuously attracting steady capital flows thanks to their significant advantages of low transaction costs, fast processing speeds, along with a more optimized user experience compared to traditional Layer 1 networks like Ethereum.

More importantly, the continuous expansion of TVL is not just a technical number, but a clear indicator showing that investor confidence is returning to the Avalanche ecosystem. It is the trust in the stability, profit potential, and actual scalability of the network – key factors that reinforce the intrinsic value of the AVAX token in the long term.

Strategic Resistance Level & the "Brain Teaser" with MA50

Technical analysts are currently focusing their attention on the price range of 24–25 dollars – a key resistance level that AVAX is attempting to reach. This is an area that recorded significant price peaks in April, and it is also a region with a high trading volume historically, reflecting a strong tug-of-war sentiment between buyers and sellers. A return to this price range could trigger profit-taking from previous investors, thereby creating significant supply pressure in the short term.

Another important technical factor being closely monitored is the 50-week moving average (MA50) – currently lying just above the current price level. The MA50 acts as both a psychological barrier and a confirmation point for the medium-term trend. If AVAX can close the week above this line, it will be a strong technical signal, confirming the trend shift from accumulation to clear growth.

On the contrary, if the price is rejected at the resistance zone and cannot surpass the MA50, AVAX may revert to a sideways oscillation state, even retesting lower support zones, before gaining enough momentum for a sustainable price increase.

Short-term warning

Although the technical signals are leaning towards a bullish trend, some indicators are still sending warning signals – reminding investors to maintain caution in the short term.

Specifically, the Stochastic Oscillator on the weekly frame is approaching the overbought area, indicating that the current uptrend may have entered an overextended state. In the past, this indicator has often warned of the possibility of short-term technical pullbacks when buying pressure begins to temporarily weaken after a hot rally.

In addition, the On-Balance Volume – OBV indicator ( has not yet confirmed a surge in capital flow. Although the price of AVAX has recovered quite strongly, OBV is still fluctuating within the accumulation zone, indicating that buying power from large investors ) smart money ( may still be in a wait-and-see state. The absence of significant capital flow at this stage means that the upward trend has not yet been solidly reinforced.

![])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-a6693fc1a21d75b407b060c845cd91f3.webp(AVAX price chart 1 week | Source: TradingViewOverall, these signals do not negate the upward potential of AVAX, but indicate that the possibility of "rest" phases occurring in the short term is entirely feasible. For short-term investors, this is the time to manage positions more tightly; for medium and long-term investors, this period may be an opportunity to observe and prepare for higher probability entry zones.

Opportunities and Challenges in the Next Quarter

AVAX investors need to prepare for one of two scenarios that may occur in the upcoming sessions — a moment considered a turning point for this token's short-term price action and medium-term trend.

) Positive scenario

If AVAX can convincingly break out of the resistance zone of $24–25 with increased trading volume, the double bottom pattern on the weekly chart will be officially confirmed. At that point, buying pressure could be strongly activated, propelling the price straight up to the technical target zone of $28–30 in the short term. The confirmation of the pattern is not only a buy signal according to technical analysis, but it could also trigger the participation of speculative and institutional capital flows — marking the beginning of a new, clearer, and stronger bullish cycle.

Negative scenario

On the contrary, if AVAX continues to be rejected at this resistance level, the price may reverse and adjust back to the support zone of 20–21 dollars, which has previously acted as a "double bottom" zone. Such a pullback could be a technical ###retest( to reaccumulate demand, but if the decline is stronger than expected and breaks through the support zone, the bullish structure risks being broken, leading to deep decline risks and weakening market sentiment.

With the convergence of many positive signals from both technical analysis and fundamental factors, AVAX is currently at a turning point that could reshape the entire trend for the remainder of the quarter. Although short-term volatility remains and there is no definitive confirmation yet, the medium-term outlook for Avalanche is still highly regarded — especially in the context:

For medium to long-term investors with a reasonable risk appetite, this may be a rare opportunity to "get ahead of the market", as a large technical pattern is forming and macro factors are gradually becoming positive. However, the prerequisite is to have a clear risk management plan, especially in the current resistance battle zone, where price behavior will be the determining factor in the game.

Taylor