A Bitcoin price model with 78% accuracy has emerged, indicating a new peak.

Bitcoin (BTC) closed the trading session on Monday with a rise to the sky of 4.34% on the day, forming a bullish engulfing candle, completely reversing the bearish action of the previous 2 days.

This model, along with BTC maintaining support above $105,000 for two consecutive days, signals a potential change in market structure and adds momentum to the ongoing recovery process.

Analysis of the bullish engulfing candle pattern of Bitcoin on the daily chart | Source: TradingViewDespite the bullish technical setup, market sentiment remains divided. To evaluate the reliability of this pattern, it is necessary to compare all bullish engulfing candles on the daily chart of BTC since 2021.

Although the bullish engulfing candle serves as the main signal, additional criteria have been used to confirm its strength:

Since January 2021, Bitcoin has recorded 19 bullish engulfing candle patterns that meet the above criteria. Among them, 15 cases led to the formation of new local highs in the following days or weeks, corresponding to a success rate of approximately 78%.

The engulfing candle pattern on the daily Bitcoin chart since 2023 | Source: TradingViewNotably, all 19 instances occurred in a bullish market context. In 2024 and 2025, there were only two unsuccessful signals, in May 2024 and March 2025, when the pattern did not lead to a new peak.

Despite these exceptions, the current bullish market structure indicates a favorable environment to continue the rise, with Bitcoin currently in a position to create new highs before possibly testing $100,000.

In a broader context, this pattern was also observed in the bear market of 2022, occurring 4 times. None of these led to a new peak, with 3 instances happening in February 2022.

This contrast emphasizes the importance of the trend context, as in the past, the effectiveness of this model was limited in a downtrend, further reinforcing the higher likelihood of success in the current bullish market.

Bitcoin flashes liquidity condition "bullish"

The Bitcoin market conditions are flashing an unprecedented setup since the end of 2022. Despite widespread panic, BTC has bottomed out at $16,800 and doubled in three months.

According to recent data from Swissblock, liquidity has returned to levels seen in December 2022, indicating the potential for a continued bullish trend.

Bitcoin network growth compared to liquidity | Source: SwissblockAlthough the macro environment, market participants, and catalysts have changed, one thing remains steadfast: when liquidity recovers, the price of BTC will follow. The current structure suggests that Bitcoin may be positioning for a similar breakout as capital flows back into the system.

The role of liquidity has significantly developed during this cycle, highlighting the maturation of Bitcoin as a macro asset. According to Glassnode, since the cycle's low in November 2022, Bitcoin has absorbed over 544 billion USD in new capital, bringing the network's internal liquidity or its fair market capitalization to an ATH of 944 billion USD.

Reasonable market cap chart of Bitcoin | Source: GlassnodeVincent